285 researched breakdowns — what the club bought, and what it changes about how we rate them.
The lists and tables are confirmed deals only — completed transfers, loans and free-agent signings. The one exception is the clearly-marked "Deals in progress" section at the top, which shows moves reliable trackers rate as imminent: fee agreed or medical booked, but not yet announced. A move only joins the confirmed lists once the clubs make it official.
Two different things share that bar. Where we have researched a move and published a breakdown, the bar shows a sourcing score out of 100. It is worked out in code, the same way for every deal, from what the sources actually establish: how far the move has got (announced, medical booked, in talks, or reported interest only), whether the fee and personal terms are agreed, how many independent outlets carry it, whether the only carriers are aggregators repeating one line, and how long a rumour has sat there without moving. It grades how solid the reporting is — it is not a chance of the deal completing, and each article shows the working behind its own figure. Where we have not researched a move, the bar shows our transfer feed’s own state — confirmed, imminent or advanced talks — and no percentage, because there is no measurement behind one.
Bawler’s model rates every team on how it actually performs — goals, chances created and conceded, and who is on the pitch. When a player who carried a big share of a team’s goal threat leaves, or a club signs a proven scorer, those numbers shift. Transfers feed into the model through updated squad data and team ratings as the new season’s matches are played.
The transfer feed is refreshed every couple of hours through the day and the page is rebuilt whenever something changes, so confirmed deals typically appear within a few hours of the announcement.
The Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, the Championship, Liga Portugal, the Eredivisie, the Scottish Premiership, the Turkish Süper Lig, the Belgian Pro League and MLS — the same leagues Bawler publishes daily match predictions for.