Bawler / Spain: La Liga / Rayo Vallecano
Team profile · Spain: La Liga

Rayo Vallecano Prediction

Form, fixtures and every settled pick · updated 13 August 2026

Matches
11
10 settled
Goals for
1.42
Expected, per match
Goals against
1.42
Expected, per match
High-confidence accuracy
50%
5/10 calls

Rayo Vallecano prediction: for Rayo Vallecano's next match — Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano on Saturday 15 Aug, 19:30 UTC — Bawler's model makes it Sevilla are favoured (44%). The model's strongest call is Over 1.5 Goals.

Rayo Vallecano sit close to the La Liga average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.42 expected goals a game and conceding 1.42. They are unbeaten across their last 5 settled matches. Next up is a trip to Sevilla, where the model has them as underdogs at 24%.

Next match

Away vs Sevilla · Saturday 15 Aug, 19:30 UTC

Win
24%
This team
Draw
32%
Loss
44%
Sevilla
High confidence · Over 1.5 Goals @ 78%
Full match preview

Form pulse

The last 5 settled results, most recent first.

Record
5W 2D 3L
Real goals
1.2 – 0.8
For / against, per match

Attack vs defence

How Rayo Vallecano compare with the Spain: La Liga average, per match.

Goals for
1.42
Below average
Goals against
1.42
Tighter than most
Scored1.42
Conceded1.42

The grey line on each bar is the Spain: La Liga average (1.44 scored, 1.46 conceded).

What the data says
Tough market: Result
Rayo Vallecano matches give the model a harder read here — 1/3 (33%) correct. Treat forecasts in this market as less reliable.

📊 Rayo Vallecano in numbers

51 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.2
Goals · per game
let in 1.1
🏠 1.4✈️ 1.0
5.6
Corners · per game
give up 5.1
🏠 6.7✈️ 4.6
14.6
Shots · per game
faced 11.6
🏠 17.2✈️ 12.0
5.0
On target · per game
faced 3.9
🏠 6.0✈️ 4.1
🗓️ Last 6 games
27 May
0-1
@ Crystal Palace
🚩 1-4
23 May
2-1
@ Alaves
🚩 5-10
17 May
2-0
vs Villarreal
🚩 1-9
14 May
1-1
@ Valencia
🚩 1-5
11 May
1-1
vs Girona
🚩 9-5
07 May
1-0
@ Strasbourg
🚩 6-5

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's tips →

Model accuracy on Rayo Vallecano matches
50%
of high-confidence calls correct, over 10

When the model makes a high-confidence call on a Rayo Vallecano fixture, it is right 5 out of 10 (50%). This sits below the cross-league baseline — the model finds this team harder to read than most. Every prediction is logged before kickoff and settled publicly.

Model accuracy on Rayo Vallecano by market
Goals (Over/Under)57%4/7
Result33%1/3

How to read this: each row groups settled high-confidence calls the model made on Rayo Vallecano fixtures by market type, so you can see where the model has the strongest read on this team. Higher hit rate = more reliable category for Rayo Vallecano matches.

Recent matches (last 10)

Transfer activity

INMarash KumbullaCBfrom RomaLoan
INNobel MendyCBfrom Real BetisUndisclosed
OUTNobel MendyCBto Hull City€25m
OUTPep ChavarríaLBto Chelsea€19m
OUTPacha EspinoLBto Racing ClubFree transfer
OUTÓscar TrejoAMto Free agentUndisclosed
OUTGil Juanpeto CD MostolesFree transfer

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

Rayo Vallecano prediction markets

More from Bawler

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly