Bawler / EUROPE: Conference League - Play Offs / AZ Alkmaar
Team profile · EUROPE: Conference League - Play Offs

AZ Alkmaar Prediction

Form, fixtures and every settled pick · updated 13 August 2026

Matches
8
7 settled
Goals for
1.53
Expected, per match
Goals against
1.50
Expected, per match
High-confidence accuracy
100%
7/7 calls

AZ Alkmaar prediction: for AZ Alkmaar's next match — Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar on Saturday 15 Aug, 16:45 UTC — Bawler's model makes it Utrecht are favoured (48%). The model's strongest call is Over 1.5 Goals.

AZ Alkmaar sit close to the Conference League - Play Offs average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.53 expected goals a game and conceding 1.50. Next up is a trip to FC Utrecht, where the model has them as underdogs at 23%.

Next match

Away vs Utrecht · Saturday 15 Aug, 16:45 UTC

Win
23%
AZ Alkmaar
Draw
29%
Loss
48%
Utrecht
High confidence · Over 1.5 Goals @ 85%
Full match preview

Form pulse

The last 5 settled results, most recent first.

W
2-0
v ADO Den Haag
D
3-3
v NAC Breda
D
1-1
@ Feyenoord
D
2-2
v Shakhtar Donetsk
L
0-3
@ Shakhtar Donetsk
Record
2W 3D 2L
Real goals
1.7 – 1.7
For / against, per match

Attack vs defence

How AZ Alkmaar compare with the EUROPE: Conference League - Play Offs average, per match.

Goals for
1.53
Below average
Goals against
1.50
Leakier than most
Scored1.53
Conceded1.50

The grey line on each bar is the EUROPE: Conference League - Play Offs average (1.57 scored, 1.34 conceded).

What the data says
Leaky defensively
Conceding 1.50 xG per match · +0.16 vs league average of 1.34.
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 100% of the time on AZ Alkmaar fixtures (6/6).

📊 AZ Alkmaar in numbers

49 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.7
Goals · per game
let in 1.3
🏠 2.2✈️ 1.3
5.9
Corners · per game
give up 4.3
🏠 6.6✈️ 5.3
15.8
Shots · per game
faced 11.6
🏠 16.7✈️ 14.9
5.8
On target · per game
faced 4.1
🏠 6.2✈️ 5.3
🗓️ Last 6 games
08 Aug
2-0
vs Den Haag
🚩 9-7
08 Aug
2-0
vs ADO Den Haag
🚩 9-7
02 Aug
4-0
@ PSV
🚩 3-6
17 May
3-3
vs NAC Breda
🚩 7-6
10 May
1-1
@ Feyenoord
🚩 3-7
03 May
2-2
vs Twente
🚩 4-3

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's tips →

Model accuracy on AZ Alkmaar matches
100%
of high-confidence calls correct, over 7

When the model makes a high-confidence call on a AZ Alkmaar fixture, it is right 7 out of 7 (100%). This is well above the cross-league baseline of ~65%. Every prediction is logged before kickoff and settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 7)

Sat 08 Augvs ADO Den Haag
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 17 Mayvs NAC Breda
High confidence: 1X
Sun 10 May@ Feyenoord Rotterdam
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 16 Aprvs Shakhtar Donetsk
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 09 Apr@ Shakhtar Donetsk
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 22 Mar@ Groningen
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 19 Mar@ Sparta Prague
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals

Transfer activity

INCalvin StengsRWfrom Free agentFree transfer
INAndrea NataliCBfrom Bayer Leverkusen€2m
INJari De BusserGKfrom Go Ahead EaglesUndisclosed
INSam De GrandLBfrom LommelUndisclosed
INJerolldino BergraafSTfrom ExcelsiorLoan
INAbdelnor SoualhiaCBfrom Le PuyFree transfer
OUTSven MijnansCMto PSV Eindhoven€13m
OUTAlexandre PenetraCBto Çorum FKLoan
OUTKristijan BelicDMto Maccabi Tel Aviv€1.3m
OUTZico BuurmeesterDMto LeganesFree transfer
OUTKasper BoogaardDMto Willem IILoan
OUTLequincio ZeefuikSTto Fortuna SittardLoan
OUTDaniël DeenGKto Free agentFree transfer
OUTAnthony SmitsRWto Grazer AKFree transfer

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

AZ Alkmaar prediction markets

More from Bawler

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly