Bawler / France: Ligue 1 / PSG
Team profile · France: Ligue 1

PSG Prediction

Form, fixtures and every settled pick · updated 13 August 2026

Matches
8
8 settled
Goals for
1.98
Expected, per match
Goals against
1.25
Expected, per match
High-confidence accuracy
75%
6/8 calls

PSG prediction: Bawler's model rates PSG at 1.98 expected goals scored and 1.25 conceded per match across 8 settled fixtures, and its high-confidence calls on them have been correct 75% of the time. They have won 2 of their last 5 settled matches. No PSG fixture falls inside the next 30 days — the next one will be forecast here as soon as it is scheduled. Full form, recent scoring and defending trend and every settled prediction are below.

PSG sit close to the Ligue 1 average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.98 expected goals a game and conceding 1.25. Their finishing has lagged the chances they make — 1.63 goals a game against 1.98 expected. Across 8 settled fixtures the model's high-confidence calls on PSG have been correct 75% of the time.

Form pulse

The last 5 settled results, most recent first.

Record
5W 2D 1L
Real goals
1.6 – 0.8
For / against, per match

Attack vs defence

How PSG compare with the France: Ligue 1 average, per match.

Goals for
1.98
Above average
Goals against
1.25
Tighter than most
Scored1.98
Conceded1.25

The grey line on each bar is the France: Ligue 1 average (1.79 scored, 1.41 conceded).

What the data says
Strong in attack
Averaging 1.98 xG per match · +0.19 above the France: Ligue 1 average of 1.79.
Solid defensively
Conceding 1.25 xG per match · -0.16 vs league average of 1.41.
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 75% of the time on PSG fixtures (3/4).

📊 PSG in numbers

51 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
2.3
Goals · per game
let in 1.0
🏠 2.6✈️ 2.0
6.1
Corners · per game
give up 3.2
🏠 6.7✈️ 5.6
18.0
Shots · per game
faced 9.4
🏠 19.6✈️ 16.4
6.8
On target · per game
faced 3.5
🏠 7.2✈️ 6.5
🗓️ Last 6 games
30 May
1-1
vs Arsenal
🚩 -
17 May
1-2
@ Paris
🚩 3-3
13 May
2-0
@ Lens
🚩 3-6
10 May
1-0
vs Brest
🚩 13-2
06 May
1-1
@ Bayern Munich
🚩 8-1
02 May
2-2
vs Lorient
🚩 12-2

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's tips →

Model accuracy on PSG matches
75%
of high-confidence calls correct, over 8

When the model makes a high-confidence call on a PSG fixture, it is right 6 out of 8 (75%). This is well above the cross-league baseline of ~65%. Every prediction is logged before kickoff and settled publicly.

Model accuracy on PSG by market
Goals (Over/Under)75%3/4
Result75%3/4

How to read this: each row groups settled high-confidence calls the model made on PSG fixtures by market type, so you can see where the model has the strongest read on this team. Higher hit rate = more reliable category for PSG matches.

Recent matches (last 8)

Transfer activity

INMaghnes AklioucheRWfrom MonacoUndisclosed
INLucas DigneLBfrom Aston Villa€7m
OUTGonçalo RamosSTto Milan€74m
OUTRandal Kolo MuaniSTto Juventus€41m
OUTKang-In LeeCMto Atletico Madrid€40m
OUTGabriel MoscardoCBto EspanyolLoan
OUTNoham KamaraCBto Lyon€4.1m
OUTYounes El HannachRBto MontpellierLoan
OUTKhalil AyariRMto DunkerqueLoan
OUTNoah NsokiRWto Dinamo ZagrebUndisclosed

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

PSG prediction markets

More from Bawler

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly