Bawler / USA: MLS / New York City
Team profile · USA: MLS

New York City Prediction

Form, fixtures and every settled pick · updated 13 August 2026

Matches
11
11 settled
Goals for
1.52
Expected, per match
Goals against
1.16
Expected, per match
High-confidence accuracy
64%
7/11 calls

New York City prediction: Bawler's model rates New York City at 1.52 expected goals scored and 1.16 conceded per match across 11 settled fixtures, and its high-confidence calls on them have been correct 64% of the time. They have won 2 of their last 5 settled matches. No New York City fixture falls inside the next 30 days — the next one will be forecast here as soon as it is scheduled. Full form, recent scoring and defending trend and every settled prediction are below.

New York City defend well, conceding 1.16 expected goals per game — below the MLS average of 1.45. Across 11 settled fixtures the model's high-confidence calls on New York City have been correct 64% of the time.

Form pulse

The last 5 settled results, most recent first.

Record
4W 3D 4L
Real goals
1.5 – 1.3
For / against, per match

Attack vs defence

How New York City compare with the USA: MLS average, per match.

Goals for
1.52
Above average
Goals against
1.16
Tighter than most
Scored1.52
Conceded1.16

The grey line on each bar is the USA: MLS average (1.48 scored, 1.45 conceded).

What the data says
Solid defensively
Conceding 1.16 xG per match · -0.29 vs league average of 1.45.
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 86% of the time on New York City fixtures (6/7).
Tough market: Result
New York City matches give the model a harder read here — 1/4 (25%) correct. Treat forecasts in this market as less reliable.

📊 New York City in numbers

52 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.4
Goals · per game
let in 1.3
🏠 1.6✈️ 1.3
4.5
Corners · per game
give up 5.4
🏠 5.6✈️ 3.4
11.7
Shots · per game
faced 12.3
🏠 13.4✈️ 10.1
4.4
On target · per game
faced 4.3
🏠 4.8✈️ 4.1
🗓️ Last 6 games
10 Aug
1-2
@ Cruz Azul
🚩 0-4
07 Aug
2-0
vs Santos Laguna
🚩 3-5
31 Jul
1-1
vs Toronto
🚩 -
25 Jul
3-1
vs Chicago Fire
🚩 1-2
22 Jul
2-1
@ Columbus Crew
🚩 0-3
24 May
1-2
@ Nashville
🚩 3-6

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's tips →

Model accuracy on New York City matches
64%
of high-confidence calls correct, over 11

When the model makes a high-confidence call on a New York City fixture, it is right 7 out of 11 (64%). Every prediction is logged before kickoff and settled publicly.

Model accuracy on New York City by market
Goals (Over/Under)86%6/7
Result25%1/4

How to read this: each row groups settled high-confidence calls the model made on New York City fixtures by market type, so you can see where the model has the strongest read on this team. Higher hit rate = more reliable category for New York City matches.

Recent matches (last 10)

Transfer activity

INBénie TraoréLWfrom Basel€8.8m
INLuighiSTfrom PalmeirasLoan
OUTStrahinja TanasijevicCBto YelimayFree transfer

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

New York City prediction markets

More from Bawler

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly