Bawler / FRANCE: Ligue 1 / Lyon
Team profile · FRANCE: Ligue 1

Lyon Prediction

Form, fixtures and every settled pick · updated 13 August 2026

Matches
8
8 settled
Goals for
1.44
Expected, per match
Goals against
1.34
Expected, per match
High-confidence accuracy
88%
7/8 calls

Lyon prediction: Bawler's model rates Lyon at 1.44 expected goals scored and 1.34 conceded per match across 8 settled fixtures, and its high-confidence calls on them have been correct 88% of the time. They have lost 3 of their last 5 settled matches. No Lyon fixture falls inside the next 30 days — the next one will be forecast here as soon as it is scheduled. Full form, recent scoring and defending trend and every settled prediction are below.

Lyon sit close to the Ligue 1 average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.44 expected goals a game and conceding 1.34. Across 8 settled fixtures the model's high-confidence calls on Lyon have been correct 88% of the time.

Form pulse

The last 5 settled results, most recent first.

Record
2W 1D 5L
Real goals
1.3 – 1.8
For / against, per match

Attack vs defence

How Lyon compare with the FRANCE: Ligue 1 average, per match.

Goals for
1.44
Above average
Goals against
1.34
Tighter than most
Scored1.44
Conceded1.34

The grey line on each bar is the FRANCE: Ligue 1 average (1.40 scored, 1.50 conceded).

What the data says
Solid defensively
Conceding 1.34 xG per match · -0.16 vs league average of 1.50.
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 83% of the time on Lyon fixtures (5/6).

📊 Lyon in numbers

46 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.6
Goals · per game
let in 1.1
🏠 1.9✈️ 1.4
5.6
Corners · per game
give up 4.3
🏠 5.9✈️ 5.3
12.9
Shots · per game
faced 11.0
🏠 14.0✈️ 11.8
4.9
On target · per game
faced 3.7
🏠 5.2✈️ 4.7
🗓️ Last 6 games
11 Aug
3-0
vs Sparta Prague
🚩 7-1
04 Aug
1-2
@ Sparta Prague
🚩 9-6
17 May
0-4
vs Lens
🚩 20-8
10 May
1-2
@ Toulouse
🚩 8-7
03 May
4-2
vs Rennes
🚩 7-5
25 Apr
3-2
vs Auxerre
🚩 6-3

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's tips →

Model accuracy on Lyon matches
88%
of high-confidence calls correct, over 8

When the model makes a high-confidence call on a Lyon fixture, it is right 7 out of 8 (88%). This is well above the cross-league baseline of ~65%. Every prediction is logged before kickoff and settled publicly.

Model accuracy on Lyon by market
Goals (Over/Under)83%5/6
Result100%2/2

How to read this: each row groups settled high-confidence calls the model made on Lyon fixtures by market type, so you can see where the model has the strongest read on this team. Higher hit rate = more reliable category for Lyon matches.

Recent matches (last 8)

Transfer activity

INMads BidstrupCMfrom Salzburg€11m
INJulien DuranvilleRWfrom Borussia Dortmund€5m
INFelix BacherCBfrom Estoril€4.3m
INNoham KamaraCBfrom Paris Saint-Germain€4.1m
INLoïs OpendaSTfrom JuventusLoan
INKail BoudacheAMfrom NiceFree transfer
INMohamed OuédraogoLMfrom Altach€2.2m
OUTAfonso MoreiraLWto Bayer Leverkusen€30m
OUTMartín SatrianoSTto Getafe€6.5m
OUTOrel MangalaDMto GetafeLoan
OUTEnzo MolebeLWto LausanneLoan
OUTAchraf LaâziriLMto Ittihad TangerFree transfer

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

Lyon prediction markets

More from Bawler

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly