Bawler / Spain: La Liga / Real Madrid
Team profile · Spain: La Liga

Real Madrid Prediction

Form, fixtures and every settled pick · updated 13 August 2026

Matches
7
7 settled
Goals for
1.77
Expected, per match
Goals against
1.74
Expected, per match
High-confidence accuracy
100%
7/7 calls

Real Madrid prediction: Bawler's model rates Real Madrid at 1.77 expected goals scored and 1.74 conceded per match across 7 settled fixtures, and its high-confidence calls on them have been correct 100% of the time. They have won 3 of their last 5 settled matches. No Real Madrid fixture falls inside the next 30 days — the next one will be forecast here as soon as it is scheduled. Full form, recent scoring and defending trend and every settled prediction are below.

Real Madrid play open, high-scoring football — 1.77 expected goals created per game, but 1.74 conceded, both above the La Liga average. Form is with them: 3 straight wins. Across 7 settled fixtures the model's high-confidence calls on Real Madrid have been correct 100% of the time.

Form pulse

The last 5 settled results, most recent first.

Record
4W 0D 3L
Real goals
2.0 – 1.7
For / against, per match

Attack vs defence

How Real Madrid compare with the Spain: La Liga average, per match.

Goals for
1.77
Above average
Goals against
1.74
Leakier than most
Scored1.77
Conceded1.74

The grey line on each bar is the Spain: La Liga average (1.44 scored, 1.46 conceded).

What the data says
Strong in attack
Averaging 1.77 xG per match · +0.33 above the Spain: La Liga average of 1.44.
Leaky defensively
Conceding 1.74 xG per match · +0.29 vs league average of 1.46.
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 100% of the time on Real Madrid fixtures (4/4).
On a 3-match winning run
Form line shows consecutive wins in their most recent settled fixtures. Momentum factor worth weighting.

📊 Real Madrid in numbers

52 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
2.1
Goals · per game
let in 1.1
🏠 2.4✈️ 1.9
6.2
Corners · per game
give up 4.4
🏠 6.8✈️ 5.7
17.6
Shots · per game
faced 12.2
🏠 19.6✈️ 15.6
6.7
On target · per game
faced 4.2
🏠 7.6✈️ 5.9
🗓️ Last 6 games
23 May
4-2
vs Athletic Bilbao
🚩 -
17 May
1-0
@ Sevilla
🚩 4-4
14 May
2-0
vs Real Oviedo
🚩 4-5
10 May
0-2
@ Barcelona
🚩 8-4
03 May
2-0
@ Espanyol
🚩 6-5
24 Apr
1-1
@ Real Betis
🚩 6-7

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's tips →

Model accuracy on Real Madrid matches
100%
of high-confidence calls correct, over 7

When the model makes a high-confidence call on a Real Madrid fixture, it is right 7 out of 7 (100%). This is well above the cross-league baseline of ~65%. Every prediction is logged before kickoff and settled publicly.

Model accuracy on Real Madrid by market
Goals (Over/Under)100%4/4
Result100%3/3

How to read this: each row groups settled high-confidence calls the model made on Real Madrid fixtures by market type, so you can see where the model has the strongest read on this team. Higher hit rate = more reliable category for Real Madrid matches.

Recent matches (last 7)

Transfer activity

INYan DiomandeRWfrom RB Leipzig€125m
INMarc CucurellaLBfrom Chelsea€55m
INIbrahima KonatéCBfrom LiverpoolFree transfer
INCarlos EspíSTfrom Levante€25m
INDenzel DumfriesRMfrom Inter€20m
INBernardo SilvaAMfrom Manchester CityFree transfer
OUTNico PazAMto Como€60m
OUTGonzalo GarcíaSTto Fulham€40m
OUTFranco MastantuonoRWto FiorentinaLoan
OUTCésar Palaciosto Fulham€10m
OUTValdeLBto Fiorentina€8m
OUTDani CeballosDMto Free agentUndisclosed
OUTFran GarcíaLBto Real Betis€4m
OUTMario MartínCMto Getafe€3.5m

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

Real Madrid prediction markets

More from Bawler

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly