Bawler / England: Premier League / Leeds
Team profile · England: Premier League

Leeds Prediction

Form, fixtures and every settled pick · updated 13 August 2026

Matches
8
8 settled
Goals for
1.59
Expected, per match
Goals against
1.30
Expected, per match
High-confidence accuracy
63%
5/8 calls

Leeds prediction: Bawler's model rates Leeds at 1.59 expected goals scored and 1.30 conceded per match across 8 settled fixtures, and its high-confidence calls on them have been correct 63% of the time. Their last 5 settled matches read 2W 1D 2L. No Leeds fixture falls inside the next 30 days — the next one will be forecast here as soon as it is scheduled. Full form, recent scoring and defending trend and every settled prediction are below.

Leeds sit close to the Premier League average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.59 expected goals a game and conceding 1.30. Across 8 settled fixtures the model's high-confidence calls on Leeds have been correct 63% of the time.

Form pulse

The last 5 settled results, most recent first.

Record
4W 2D 2L
Real goals
1.4 – 1.0
For / against, per match

Attack vs defence

How Leeds compare with the England: Premier League average, per match.

Goals for
1.59
Above average
Goals against
1.30
Tighter than most
Scored1.59
Conceded1.30

The grey line on each bar is the England: Premier League average (1.46 scored, 1.46 conceded).

What the data says
Solid defensively
Conceding 1.30 xG per match · -0.17 vs league average of 1.46.
Model is strongest on: Result
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 75% of the time on Leeds fixtures (3/4).
Tough market: Goals (Over/Under)
Leeds matches give the model a harder read here — 1/3 (33%) correct. Treat forecasts in this market as less reliable.

📊 Leeds in numbers

42 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.4
Goals · per game
let in 1.4
🏠 1.5✈️ 1.2
4.4
Corners · per game
give up 4.9
🏠 5.6✈️ 3.4
12.5
Shots · per game
faced 12.3
🏠 14.3✈️ 11.0
4.0
On target · per game
faced 4.1
🏠 4.4✈️ 3.7
🗓️ Last 6 games
02 Aug
4-2
@ Liverpool
🚩 7-3
31 Jul
1-0
@ Sunderland
🚩 0-0
24 May
0-3
@ West Ham
🚩 4-6
17 May
1-0
vs Brighton
🚩 7-8
11 May
1-1
@ Tottenham
🚩 2-14
01 May
3-1
vs Burnley
🚩 5-0

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's tips →

Model accuracy on Leeds matches
63%
of high-confidence calls correct, over 8

When the model makes a high-confidence call on a Leeds fixture, it is right 5 out of 8 (63%). Every prediction is logged before kickoff and settled publicly.

Model accuracy on Leeds by market
Result75%3/4
Goals (Over/Under)33%1/3

How to read this: each row groups settled high-confidence calls the model made on Leeds fixtures by market type, so you can see where the model has the strongest read on this team. Higher hit rate = more reliable category for Leeds matches.

Recent matches (last 8)

Transfer activity

INTarik MuharemovicCBfrom Sassuolo€40m
INJames TraffordGKfrom Manchester CityUndisclosed
INHarry WilsonRWfrom Free agentFree transfer
OUTPascal StruijkCBto Brighton & Hove Albion€23m
OUTJack HarrisonRWto New England RevolutionUndisclosed
OUTIllan MeslierGKto Free agentFree transfer
OUTIsaac SchmidtLMto Young BoysFree transfer
OUTMaximilian WöberCBto Schalke 04Free transfer
OUTKarl DarlowGKto Manchester UnitedFree transfer

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

FPL assets at this club (2026/27 projections)

Calvert-LewinCalvert-LewinFWD · £6.0m · 25.2% owned3.4 pts
StachStachMID · £6.0m · 1.1% owned3.2 pts
AmpaduAmpaduMID · £5.5m · 1.6% owned3.1 pts
TraffordTraffordGKP · £5.0m · 2.4% owned3.0 pts
WilsonWilsonMID · £6.5m · 7.9% owned2.9 pts
Next 5:NFO (A)BRE (H)BHA (A)NEW (H)CRY (H)

Full predicted points table → · Fixture difficulty matrix →

Leeds prediction markets

More from Bawler

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly