BAWLER
75.3%High-conf. hit rate
1,599 won524 lost10 ungraded
Verified in public

2,123 forecasts.Every one on the record.

0.185
Brier score · lower is better
+1.4%
Calibration gap · slightly hot
47
Competitions covered
194
Days of unbroken logging
Calibration · said vs happened Said Happened
60–70
71% actual · 340
70–75
68% actual · 430
75–80
78% actual · 711
80–88
80% actual · 566
88%+
79% actual · 76

When we say 78%, it happens 78% of the time — that’s the whole product.

Hit rate by month · high confidencedashed = 75.3% all-time
74%
75%
75%
70%
69%
78%
76%
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
By marketmin 25 settled
Home to win79%/143
Over 1.5 goals78%/1159
Home or draw73%/346
Away or draw72%/203
Away to win72%/39
Over 2.5 goals59%/61
By competition · best to worstmin 40 settled · top 5
Bundesliga85%/72
Eredivisie84%/98
Liga Portugal82%/44
Primeira Liga81%/54
Pro League78%/55
Every number above is recomputable from the raw ledger — no edits, no backdating, anchored to BitcoinOpen the full ledger →Verify →

The full ledger

Track Record

0 settled predictions · 0 pending

Auto-tracked

Loading the full pick history…

Most likely accuracy

0%

0 of 0 calls correct

Independently Verifiable

✓

Picks hash-anchored before kickoff (backfilled entries flagged)

Longest Odds Called

—

Least likely combination the model called correctly

Predictions Tracked

0

Predictions logged before kickoff (except flagged backfilled entries)

This Week vs Target

Last 7 days · 0 fixtures settled

vs long-run tier targets
HIGH CONFIDENCE·
—
0 settled · need 3+
Not enough data
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE·
—
0 settled · need 3+
Not enough data
OUTSIDE SHOT·
—
0 settled · need 3+
Not enough data

Pick Tiers

HIGH CONFIDENCE
0%
0W / 0L
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
0%
0W / 0L
OUTSIDE SHOT
0%
0W / 0L

No settled predictions yet.

Predictions are logged automatically and settled after matches finish.

Model Validation Progress0/500

Full per-league calibration unlocks at 500 settled predictions