How does Bawler pick the best Correct Score fixtures?

Every match in the day's slate is forecast by Bawler's goals-based model on recent scoring form (expected goals, or xG), recent results, opponent strength and home advantage. The model outputs a probability for Correct Score, fixtures are ranked highest-probability first, and the top calls are published before kickoff. There is no curation step — the model's output is the page.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. Bawler is a statistical model and probabilities are not certainties. A 70% prediction will, on average, miss 30% of the time. Treat the numbers as estimates, never as guarantees.

Correct Score 13 November 2026

Correct Score predictions today

Strongest Correct Score call today

0–1

Most likely scoreline

18% of the time

today

coming up

competitions

International Friendly · 14:45

Qatarv

Australia

Every Correct Score call below is the model's own output, ranked highest probability first — 36 fixtures across 2 competitions, with no curation step in between.

Each call is published and locked at about 17:00 UK, usually around two days before kickoff. Model last rerun 13 November 2026.

Today's Correct Score predictions

18 fixtures

Ranked by model probability — higher means more confident.

Qatarv

Australia

0-1

International Friendly · 14:45 · 0.47 expected goals home · 1.84 away

International Friendly · 12:00 · 0.37 expected goals home · 2.34 away

UEFA Nations League · 19:45 · 2.30 expected goals home · 0.39 away

UEFA Nations League · 19:45 · 0.52 expected goals home · 2.08 away

UEFA Nations League · 19:45 · 0.56 expected goals home · 1.93 away

International Friendly · 23:00 · 2.40 expected goals home · 0.52 away

UEFA Nations League · 19:45 · 0.46 expected goals home · 2.73 away

15%

United Arab Emiratesv

Honduras

1-0

International Friendly · 14:15 · 1.42 expected goals home · 0.84 away

UEFA Nations League · 19:45 · 0.97 expected goals home · 1.03 away

UEFA Nations League · 19:45 · 1.68 expected goals home · 0.83 away

UEFA Nations League · 19:45 · 1.12 expected goals home · 1.06 away

International Friendly · 14:30 · 1.10 expected goals home · 1.10 away

UEFA Nations League · 19:45 · 1.90 expected goals home · 0.77 away

International Friendly · 15:00 · 1.26 expected goals home · 1.09 away

International Friendly · 20:00 · 1.52 expected goals home · 1.26 away

UEFA Nations League · 19:45 · 0.89 expected goals home · 2.05 away

UEFA Nations League · 17:00 · 1.02 expected goals home · 1.78 away

International Friendly · 14:00 · 1.07 expected goals home · 1.88 away

11%

Upcoming Correct Score predictions

to Sunday 15 Nov

Already published and locked. Later fixtures join the list as their calls go up, about two days before kickoff.

Tomorrow

Ecuadorv

Costa Rica

2-0

International Friendly · 00:00 · 2.07 expected goals home · 0.48 away

UEFA Nations League · 17:00 · 0.76 expected goals home · 1.49 away

International Friendly · 01:00 · 1.92 expected goals home · 0.61 away

International Friendly · 12:00 · 0.62 expected goals home · 1.94 away

UEFA Nations League · 19:45 · 1.37 expected goals home · 0.85 away

UEFA Nations League · 17:00 · 2.52 expected goals home · 0.55 away

UEFA Nations League · 14:00 · 1.85 expected goals home · 0.71 away

International Friendly · 00:00 · 2.05 expected goals home · 0.68 away

International Friendly · 15:00 · 1.11 expected goals home · 1.35 away

International Friendly · 12:00 · 0.72 expected goals home · 2.48 away

International Friendly · 10:15 · 1.26 expected goals home · 1.42 away

UEFA Nations League · 19:45 · 0.79 expected goals home · 2.16 away

UEFA Nations League · 19:45 · 1.49 expected goals home · 1.27 away

UEFA Nations League · 19:45 · 2.18 expected goals home · 0.83 away

UEFA Nations League · 19:45 · 1.73 expected goals home · 1.00 away

International Friendly · 06:00 · 0.87 expected goals home · 2.48 away

International Friendly · 05:30 · 1.99 expected goals home · 1.23 away

10%

Sunday 15 Nov

New Zealandv

India

2-0

International Friendly · 03:00 · 2.86 expected goals home · 0.44 away

15%

How the model calls Correct Score

Correct Score asks for the exact full-time scoreline. It's the hardest mainstream market to call — even the single most likely scoreline is typically only ~12-15% probable, so treat the top call as the best of a very open field. Bawler computes the joint probability of every realistic scoreline from 0-0 to 6-6 and surfaces the most likely.

The model works out how many goals each side is likely to score from their recent scoring and defending, factors in opponent strength and home advantage, then checks its numbers against real results every week and adjusts them.

Full methodology Bawler's pick record

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