Bawler / USA: MLS / St. Louis CITY
Team profile · USA: MLS

St. Louis CITY Prediction

Form, fixtures and every settled pick · updated 13 August 2026

Matches
10
9 settled
Goals for
1.33
Expected, per match
Goals against
1.28
Expected, per match
High-confidence accuracy
89%
8/9 calls

St. Louis CITY prediction: for St. Louis CITY's next match — San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis CITY on Sunday 16 Aug, 02:30 UTC — Bawler's model makes it San Jose Earthquakes are favoured (45%). The model's strongest call is Over 1.5 Goals.

St. Louis CITY sit close to the MLS average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.33 expected goals a game and conceding 1.28. They have been finishing above their chances, scoring 1.67 a game against 1.33 expected. They are unbeaten across their last 5 settled matches. Next up is a trip to San Jose Earthquakes, where the model has them as underdogs at 26%.

Next match

Away vs San Jose Earthquakes · Sunday 16 Aug, 02:30 UTC

Win
26%
This team
Draw
29%
Loss
45%
Opponent
High confidence · Over 1.5 Goals @ 85%
Full match preview

Form pulse

The last 5 settled results, most recent first.

Record
5W 3D 1L
Real goals
1.7 – 1.0
For / against, per match

Attack vs defence

How St. Louis CITY compare with the USA: MLS average, per match.

Goals for
1.33
Below average
Goals against
1.28
Tighter than most
Scored1.33
Conceded1.28

The grey line on each bar is the USA: MLS average (1.48 scored, 1.45 conceded).

What the data says
Solid defensively
Conceding 1.28 xG per match · -0.17 vs league average of 1.45.
Model is strongest on: Result
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 100% of the time on St. Louis CITY fixtures (4/4).

📊 St. Louis CITY in numbers

43 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.4
Goals · per game
let in 1.5
🏠 1.6✈️ 1.3
5.0
Corners · per game
give up 5.3
🏠 6.2✈️ 3.5
14.6
Shots · per game
faced 14.4
🏠 16.6✈️ 12.3
4.6
On target · per game
faced 4.8
🏠 5.4✈️ 3.8
🗓️ Last 6 games
02 Aug
1-1
vs Real Salt Lake
🚩 9-4
26 Jul
1-0
vs Colorado Rapids
🚩 10-1
23 Jul
3-1
@ LA Galaxy
🚩 -
17 Jul
3-2
vs Sporting Kansas City
🚩 5-6
23 May
3-0
vs Austin
🚩 2-2
16 May
1-1
@ D.C. United
🚩 8-5

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's tips →

Model accuracy on St. Louis CITY matches
89%
of high-confidence calls correct, over 9

When the model makes a high-confidence call on a St. Louis CITY fixture, it is right 8 out of 9 (89%). This is well above the cross-league baseline of ~65%. Every prediction is logged before kickoff and settled publicly.

Model accuracy on St. Louis CITY by market
Goals (Over/Under)80%4/5
Result100%4/4

How to read this: each row groups settled high-confidence calls the model made on St. Louis CITY fixtures by market type, so you can see where the model has the strongest read on this team. Higher hit rate = more reliable category for St. Louis CITY matches.

Recent matches (last 9)

Transfer activity

INCarlo HolseAMfrom Samsunspor€5.2m
INSergio CórdovaSTfrom Young BoysLoan
INAlexandru MatanAMfrom PanetolikosFree transfer
OUTMarcel HartelAMto Hannover 96€800k
OUTJake Girdwood-ReichCBto Motherwell€600k
OUTJayden ReidLBto Sporting Kansas CityFree transfer
OUTSeth AntwiDMto Birmingham Legion FCFree transfer
OUTEmil JääskeläinenSTto Sporting Club JacksonvilleFree transfer

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

St. Louis CITY prediction markets

More from Bawler

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly