Bawler / USA: MLS / Chicago Fire
Team profile · USA: MLS

Chicago Fire Prediction

Form, fixtures and every settled pick · updated 13 August 2026

Matches
11
11 settled
Goals for
1.59
Expected, per match
Goals against
1.33
Expected, per match
High-confidence accuracy
73%
8/11 calls

Chicago Fire prediction: Bawler's model rates Chicago Fire at 1.59 expected goals scored and 1.33 conceded per match across 11 settled fixtures, and its high-confidence calls on them have been correct 73% of the time. They have won 3 of their last 5 settled matches. No Chicago Fire fixture falls inside the next 30 days — the next one will be forecast here as soon as it is scheduled. Full form, recent scoring and defending trend and every settled prediction are below.

Chicago Fire sit close to the MLS average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.59 expected goals a game and conceding 1.33. Across 11 settled fixtures the model's high-confidence calls on Chicago Fire have been correct 73% of the time.

Form pulse

The last 5 settled results, most recent first.

Record
5W 2D 4L
Real goals
1.7 – 1.6
For / against, per match

Attack vs defence

How Chicago Fire compare with the USA: MLS average, per match.

Goals for
1.59
Above average
Goals against
1.33
Tighter than most
Scored1.59
Conceded1.33

The grey line on each bar is the USA: MLS average (1.48 scored, 1.45 conceded).

What the data says
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 83% of the time on Chicago Fire fixtures (5/6).

📊 Chicago Fire in numbers

50 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.9
Goals · per game
let in 1.7
🏠 1.6✈️ 2.3
4.6
Corners · per game
give up 4.9
🏠 5.4✈️ 3.8
14.4
Shots · per game
faced 13.1
🏠 16.0✈️ 12.8
5.6
On target · per game
faced 4.6
🏠 5.6✈️ 5.7
🗓️ Last 6 games
10 Aug
3-1
vs Santos Laguna
🚩 7-2
07 Aug
2-0
vs Necaxa
🚩 6-3
02 Aug
2-1
vs Charlotte
🚩 8-6
25 Jul
1-3
@ New York City
🚩 2-1
22 Jul
2-3
@ Inter Miami
🚩 4-8
24 May
2-1
vs Toronto
🚩 3-4

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's tips →

Model accuracy on Chicago Fire matches
73%
of high-confidence calls correct, over 11

When the model makes a high-confidence call on a Chicago Fire fixture, it is right 8 out of 11 (73%). This is well above the cross-league baseline of ~65%. Every prediction is logged before kickoff and settled publicly.

Model accuracy on Chicago Fire by market
Goals (Over/Under)83%5/6
Result60%3/5

How to read this: each row groups settled high-confidence calls the model made on Chicago Fire fixtures by market type, so you can see where the model has the strongest read on this team. Higher hit rate = more reliable category for Chicago Fire matches.

Recent matches (last 10)

Transfer activity

INRobert LewandowskiSTfrom BarcelonaFree transfer
INRobin LodCMfrom Minnesota UnitedFree transfer
INJosh CohenGKfrom Atlanta UnitedFree transfer
OUTHugo CuypersSTto Monterrey€6.6m
OUTJustin ReynoldsRBto Sporting Kansas CityFree transfer
OUTOmari GlasgowRWto Monterey Bay FCLoan
OUTHarold OsorioCMto Alianza FCFree transfer

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

Chicago Fire prediction markets

More from Bawler

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly