Bawler / England: Premier League / Manchester City
Team profile · England: Premier League

Manchester City Prediction

Form, fixtures and every settled pick · updated 13 August 2026

Matches
6
6 settled
Goals for
1.93
Expected, per match
Goals against
1.36
Expected, per match
High-confidence accuracy
67%
4/6 calls

Manchester City prediction: Bawler's model rates Manchester City at 1.93 expected goals scored and 1.36 conceded per match across 6 settled fixtures, and its high-confidence calls on them have been correct 67% of the time. They have won 3 of their last 5 settled matches. No Manchester City fixture falls inside the next 30 days — the next one will be forecast here as soon as it is scheduled. Full form, recent scoring and defending trend and every settled prediction are below.

Manchester City carry a strong attacking profile, creating 1.93 expected goals per game against a Premier League average of 1.46. Their finishing has lagged the chances they make — 1.50 goals a game against 1.93 expected. Recent form is good, with 3 wins in their last 5. Across 6 settled fixtures the model's high-confidence calls on Manchester City have been correct 67% of the time.

Form pulse

The last 5 settled results, most recent first.

Record
3W 2D 1L
Real goals
1.5 – 0.5
For / against, per match

Attack vs defence

How Manchester City compare with the England: Premier League average, per match.

Goals for
1.93
Above average
Goals against
1.36
Tighter than most
Scored1.93
Conceded1.36

The grey line on each bar is the England: Premier League average (1.46 scored, 1.46 conceded).

What the data says
Strong in attack
Averaging 1.93 xG per match · +0.47 above the England: Premier League average of 1.46.

📊 Manchester City in numbers

50 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.9
Goals · per game
let in 1.0
🏠 2.2✈️ 1.6
6.3
Corners · per game
give up 3.6
🏠 7.0✈️ 5.7
15.4
Shots · per game
faced 9.5
🏠 16.3✈️ 14.5
5.6
On target · per game
faced 3.3
🏠 6.2✈️ 5.0
🗓️ Last 6 games
24 May
1-2
vs Aston Villa
🚩 9-4
19 May
1-1
@ Bournemouth
🚩 6-7
16 May
1-0
@ Chelsea
🚩 -
13 May
3-0
vs Crystal Palace
🚩 9-4
09 May
3-0
vs Brentford
🚩 10-2
04 May
3-3
@ Everton
🚩 9-5

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's tips →

Model accuracy on Manchester City matches
67%
of high-confidence calls correct, over 6

When the model makes a high-confidence call on a Manchester City fixture, it is right 4 out of 6 (67%). Every prediction is logged before kickoff and settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 6)

Transfer activity

INElliot AndersonDMfrom Nottingham Forest€135m
INMathys DetourbetLWfrom Troyes€25m
INJeremy MongaLWfrom Leicester City€15m
INPierce CharlesGKfrom Sheffield Wednesday€3.5m
INGerónimo RulliGKfrom Marseille€2m
OUTJames TraffordGKto Leeds UnitedUndisclosed
OUTSverre Halseth NypanAMto LommelLoan
OUTBernardo SilvaAMto Real MadridFree transfer
OUTManuel AkanjiCBto Inter€15m
OUTNathan AkéCBto FenerbahçeUndisclosed
OUTJohn StonesCBto Free agentFree transfer
OUTKalvin PhillipsCMto Sheffield UnitedLoan
OUTJahmai Simpson-PuseyCBto 1. FC Köln€5m

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

FPL assets at this club (2026/27 projections)

HaalandHaalandFWD · £15.5m · 73.5% owned5.3 pts
CherkiCherkiMID · £7.5m · 8.9% owned3.3 pts
DonnarummaDonnarummaGKP · £5.5m · 11% owned3.2 pts
FodenFodenMID · £7.0m · 6.4% owned3.1 pts
SemenyoSemenyoMID · £8.5m · 26.8% owned3.0 pts
Next 5:BOU (H)CRY (A)COV (H)MUN (A)SUN (H)

Full predicted points table → · Fixture difficulty matrix →

Manchester City prediction markets

More from Bawler

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly