Bawler / Italy: Serie A / Fiorentina
Team profile · Italy: Serie A

Fiorentina Prediction

Form, fixtures and every settled pick · updated 13 August 2026

Matches
7
7 settled
Goals for
1.41
Expected, per match
Goals against
1.42
Expected, per match
High-confidence accuracy
71%
5/7 calls

Fiorentina prediction: Bawler's model rates Fiorentina at 1.41 expected goals scored and 1.42 conceded per match across 7 settled fixtures, and its high-confidence calls on them have been correct 71% of the time. They have won 2 of their last 5 settled matches. No Fiorentina fixture falls inside the next 30 days — the next one will be forecast here as soon as it is scheduled. Full form, recent scoring and defending trend and every settled prediction are below.

Fiorentina sit close to the Serie A average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.41 expected goals a game and conceding 1.42. Across 7 settled fixtures the model's high-confidence calls on Fiorentina have been correct 71% of the time.

Form pulse

The last 5 settled results, most recent first.

Record
3W 3D 1L
Real goals
1.1 – 1.0
For / against, per match

Attack vs defence

How Fiorentina compare with the Italy: Serie A average, per match.

Goals for
1.41
Above average
Goals against
1.42
Leakier than most
Scored1.41
Conceded1.42

The grey line on each bar is the Italy: Serie A average (1.20 scored, 1.36 conceded).

What the data says
Strong in attack
Averaging 1.41 xG per match · +0.21 above the Italy: Serie A average of 1.20.
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 80% of the time on Fiorentina fixtures (4/5).

📊 Fiorentina in numbers

51 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.2
Goals · per game
let in 1.3
🏠 1.2✈️ 1.2
4.7
Corners · per game
give up 4.1
🏠 5.8✈️ 3.6
13.6
Shots · per game
faced 13.2
🏠 15.9✈️ 11.3
4.0
On target · per game
faced 4.4
🏠 4.5✈️ 3.5
🗓️ Last 6 games
22 May
1-1
vs Atalanta
🚩 3-3
17 May
2-0
@ Juventus
🚩 2-6
10 May
0-0
vs Genoa
🚩 4-3
04 May
0-4
@ Roma
🚩 5-4
26 Apr
0-0
vs Sassuolo
🚩 7-4
20 Apr
1-1
@ Lecce
🚩 2-5

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's tips →

Model accuracy on Fiorentina matches
71%
of high-confidence calls correct, over 7

When the model makes a high-confidence call on a Fiorentina fixture, it is right 5 out of 7 (71%). This is well above the cross-league baseline of ~65%. Every prediction is logged before kickoff and settled publicly.

Model accuracy on Fiorentina by market
Goals (Over/Under)80%4/5
Result50%1/2

How to read this: each row groups settled high-confidence calls the model made on Fiorentina fixtures by market type, so you can see where the model has the strongest read on this team. Higher hit rate = more reliable category for Fiorentina matches.

Recent matches (last 7)

Transfer activity

INFranco MastantuonoRWfrom Real MadridLoan
INChrist Inao OulaïDMfrom Trabzonspor€26m
INArthur AttaCMfrom Udinese€25m
INÁlex JiménezRBfrom AFC BournemouthLoan
INGiovanni FabbianAMfrom Bologna€16m
INVieryCBfrom Gremio€15m
INMarco BrescianiniCMfrom Atalanta€10m
INValdeLBfrom Real Madrid€8m
OUTLucas BeltránSTto River PlateLoan
OUTJacopo FazziniLWto CagliariLoan
OUTTariq LampteyRMto Queens Park RangersFree transfer
OUTAmir RichardsonCMto Le HavreLoan
OUTSimon SohmCMto VeneziaLoan
OUTMatías MorenoCBto VeneziaLoan
OUTRobin GosensLBto Schalke 04Loan
OUTTommaso MartinelliGKto AvellinoLoan

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

Fiorentina prediction markets

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Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly