Bawler / ENGLAND: Championship / Southampton
Team profile · ENGLAND: Championship

Southampton Prediction

Form, fixtures and every settled pick · updated 13 August 2026

Matches
7
7 settled
Goals for
1.57
Expected, per match
Goals against
1.35
Expected, per match
High-confidence accuracy
71%
5/7 calls

Southampton prediction: Bawler's model rates Southampton at 1.57 expected goals scored and 1.35 conceded per match across 7 settled fixtures, and its high-confidence calls on them have been correct 71% of the time. They are unbeaten across their last 5 settled matches. No Southampton fixture falls inside the next 30 days — the next one will be forecast here as soon as it is scheduled. Full form, recent scoring and defending trend and every settled prediction are below.

Southampton carry a strong attacking profile, creating 1.57 expected goals per game against a Championship average of 1.29. They have been finishing above their chances, scoring 2.29 a game against 1.57 expected. They are unbeaten across their last 5 settled matches. Across 7 settled fixtures the model's high-confidence calls on Southampton have been correct 71% of the time.

Form pulse

The last 5 settled results, most recent first.

Record
6W 1D 0L
Real goals
2.3 – 0.6
For / against, per match

Attack vs defence

How Southampton compare with the ENGLAND: Championship average, per match.

Goals for
1.57
Above average
Goals against
1.35
Leakier than most
Scored1.57
Conceded1.35

The grey line on each bar is the ENGLAND: Championship average (1.29 scored, 1.28 conceded).

What the data says
Strong in attack
Averaging 1.57 xG per match · +0.28 above the ENGLAND: Championship average of 1.29.
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 80% of the time on Southampton fixtures (4/5).

📊 Southampton in numbers

50 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.8
Goals · per game
let in 1.1
🏠 1.7✈️ 1.9
5.6
Corners · per game
give up 4.7
🏠 6.3✈️ 5.0
14.7
Shots · per game
faced 12.6
🏠 15.6✈️ 13.9
5.2
On target · per game
faced 3.8
🏠 5.4✈️ 5.0
🗓️ Last 6 games
08 Aug
2-0
@ Colchester
🚩 5-1
08 Aug
2-0
@ Colchester United
🚩 5-1
12 May
2-1
vs Middlesbrough
🚩 -
09 May
0-0
@ Middlesbrough
🚩 1-11
02 May
3-1
@ Preston
🚩 5-10
28 Apr
2-2
vs Ipswich
🚩 5-9

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's tips →

Model accuracy on Southampton matches
71%
of high-confidence calls correct, over 7

When the model makes a high-confidence call on a Southampton fixture, it is right 5 out of 7 (71%). This is well above the cross-league baseline of ~65%. Every prediction is logged before kickoff and settled publicly.

Model accuracy on Southampton by market
Goals (Over/Under)80%4/5
Result50%1/2

How to read this: each row groups settled high-confidence calls the model made on Southampton fixtures by market type, so you can see where the model has the strongest read on this team. Higher hit rate = more reliable category for Southampton matches.

Recent matches (last 7)

Transfer activity

INDaniel PeretzGKfrom Bayern München€8m
INDivin MubamaSTfrom Manchester CityLoan
INLewis DobbinSTfrom Aston VillaUndisclosed
INCyle LarinSTfrom MallorcaUndisclosed
INGeorge LongGKfrom Norwich CityFree transfer
OUTShea CharlesDMto Fulham€35m
OUTJay RobinsonAMto MonzaLoan
OUTWilliam SmallboneAMto Free agentUndisclosed
OUTRoss StewartSTto Free agentUndisclosed
OUTJoe AriboDMto Free agentUndisclosed
OUTCharlie TaylorCBto Free agentUndisclosed
OUTDaouda TraoréDMto Le MansLoan
OUTNicholas OyekunleSTto Leyton OrientLoan

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

Southampton prediction markets

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Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly