Bawler / EUROPE: Europa League - Play Offs / Aston Villa

Team profile · EUROPE: Europa League - Play Offs

Aston Villa Prediction

Form, fixtures and every settled pick · updated 13 August 2026

Matches

10 settled

Goals for

1.36

Expected, per match

Goals against

1.37

Expected, per match

High-confidence accuracy

70%

7/10 calls

Aston Villa prediction: Bawler's model rates Aston Villa at 1.36 expected goals scored and 1.37 conceded per match across 10 settled fixtures, and its high-confidence calls on them have been correct 70% of the time. They have won 3 of their last 5 settled matches. No Aston Villa fixture falls inside the next 30 days — the next one will be forecast here as soon as it is scheduled. Full form, recent scoring and defending trend and every settled prediction are below.

Aston Villa sit close to the Europa League - Play Offs average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.36 expected goals a game and conceding 1.37. They have been finishing above their chances, scoring 2.30 a game against 1.36 expected. Form is with them: 3 straight wins. Across 10 settled fixtures the model's high-confidence calls on Aston Villa have been correct 70% of the time.

Form pulse

The last 5 settled results, most recent first.

Record

7W 1D 2L

Real goals

2.3 – 0.9

For / against, per match

Attack vs defence

How Aston Villa compare with the EUROPE: Europa League - Play Offs average, per match.

Goals for

1.36

Above average

Goals against

1.37

Tighter than most

Scored1.36

Conceded1.37

The grey line on each bar is the EUROPE: Europa League - Play Offs average (1.31 scored, 1.48 conceded).

What the data says

Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)

High-confidence calls in this market are correct 86% of the time on Aston Villa fixtures (6/7).

Tough market: Result

Aston Villa matches give the model a harder read here — 1/3 (33%) correct. Treat forecasts in this market as less reliable.

On a 3-match winning run

Form line shows consecutive wins in their most recent settled fixtures. Momentum factor worth weighting.

📊 Aston Villa in numbers

53 competitive matches · friendlies excluded

1.6

Goals · per game

let in 1.1

🏠 1.9✈️ 1.4

5.2

Corners · per game

give up 4.4

🏠 5.5✈️ 5.0

12.6

Shots · per game

faced 12.2

🏠 13.8✈️ 11.4

4.8

On target · per game

faced 4.4

🏠 5.4✈️ 4.1

🗓️ Last 6 games

24 May

2-1

@ Manchester City

🚩 4-9

20 May

3-0

@ Freiburg

🚩 8-1

15 May

4-2

vs Liverpool

🚩 4-9

10 May

2-2

@ Burnley

🚩 8-2

07 May

4-0

vs Nott'm Forest

🚩 6-3

03 May

1-2

vs Tottenham

🚩 5-5

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's tips →

Model accuracy on Aston Villa matches

70%

of high-confidence calls correct, over 10

When the model makes a high-confidence call on a Aston Villa fixture, it is right 7 out of 10 (70%). This is well above the cross-league baseline of ~65%. Every prediction is logged before kickoff and settled publicly.

Model accuracy on Aston Villa by market

Goals (Over/Under)86%6/7

Result33%1/3

How to read this: each row groups settled high-confidence calls the model made on Aston Villa fixtures by market type, so you can see where the model has the strongest read on this team. Higher hit rate = more reliable category for Aston Villa matches.