Bawler / Italy: Serie A / Roma
Team profile · Italy: Serie A

Roma Prediction

Form, fixtures and every settled pick · updated 13 August 2026

Matches
7
7 settled
Goals for
1.34
Expected, per match
Goals against
1.16
Expected, per match
High-confidence accuracy
100%
7/7 calls

Roma prediction: Bawler's model rates Roma at 1.34 expected goals scored and 1.16 conceded per match across 7 settled fixtures, and its high-confidence calls on them have been correct 100% of the time. They have won 3 of their last 5 settled matches. No Roma fixture falls inside the next 30 days — the next one will be forecast here as soon as it is scheduled. Full form, recent scoring and defending trend and every settled prediction are below.

Roma sit close to the Serie A average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.34 expected goals a game and conceding 1.16. They have been finishing above their chances, scoring 2.00 a game against 1.34 expected. Form is with them: 3 straight wins. Across 7 settled fixtures the model's high-confidence calls on Roma have been correct 100% of the time.

Form pulse

The last 5 settled results, most recent first.

Record
4W 2D 1L
Real goals
2.0 – 1.6
For / against, per match

Attack vs defence

How Roma compare with the Italy: Serie A average, per match.

Goals for
1.34
Above average
Goals against
1.16
Tighter than most
Scored1.34
Conceded1.16

The grey line on each bar is the Italy: Serie A average (1.20 scored, 1.36 conceded).

What the data says
Solid defensively
Conceding 1.16 xG per match · -0.20 vs league average of 1.36.
Model is strongest on: Result
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 100% of the time on Roma fixtures (5/5).
On a 3-match winning run
Form line shows consecutive wins in their most recent settled fixtures. Momentum factor worth weighting.

📊 Roma in numbers

48 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.6
Goals · per game
let in 0.8
🏠 1.7✈️ 1.5
5.2
Corners · per game
give up 3.6
🏠 5.9✈️ 4.5
13.5
Shots · per game
faced 9.9
🏠 15.8✈️ 11.2
4.7
On target · per game
faced 3.6
🏠 5.4✈️ 4.0
🗓️ Last 6 games
24 May
2-0
@ Verona
🚩 6-6
17 May
2-0
vs Lazio
🚩 8-3
10 May
3-2
@ Parma
🚩 6-3
04 May
4-0
vs Fiorentina
🚩 4-5
25 Apr
2-0
@ Bologna
🚩 7-7
18 Apr
1-1
vs Atalanta
🚩 7-6

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's tips →

Model accuracy on Roma matches
100%
of high-confidence calls correct, over 7

When the model makes a high-confidence call on a Roma fixture, it is right 7 out of 7 (100%). This is well above the cross-league baseline of ~65%. Every prediction is logged before kickoff and settled publicly.

Model accuracy on Roma by market
Result100%5/5
Goals (Over/Under)100%2/2

How to read this: each row groups settled high-confidence calls the model made on Roma fixtures by market type, so you can see where the model has the strongest read on this team. Higher hit rate = more reliable category for Roma matches.

Recent matches (last 7)

Transfer activity

INSantiago CastroSTfrom Bologna€35m
INDonyell MalenSTfrom Aston Villa€20m
INNahuel MolinaRBfrom Atletico Madrid€18m
INKonstantinos KoulierakisCBfrom Wolfsburg€17m
INDaniele GhilardiCBfrom Hellas Verona€8m
OUTArtem DovbykSTto BolognaLoan
OUTTommaso BaldanziAMto Genoa€9.5m
OUTAngeliñoLWBto Deportivo A CoruñaLoan
OUTZeki ÇelikRWBto JuventusFree transfer
OUTBuba SangaréCBto Elche€4.5m
OUTSaud AbdulhamidRWBto Lens€3.5m
OUTEldor ShomurodovAMto Başakşehir€2.8m
OUTMarash KumbullaCBto Rayo VallecanoLoan

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

Roma prediction markets

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Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly