Bawler / England: Premier League / Chelsea

Team profile · England: Premier League

Chelsea Prediction

Form, fixtures and every settled pick · updated 13 August 2026

Matches

8 settled

Goals for

1.76

Expected, per match

Goals against

1.39

Expected, per match

High-confidence accuracy

63%

5/8 calls

Chelsea prediction: Bawler's model rates Chelsea at 1.76 expected goals scored and 1.39 conceded per match across 8 settled fixtures, and its high-confidence calls on them have been correct 63% of the time. They have lost 3 of their last 5 settled matches. No Chelsea fixture falls inside the next 30 days — the next one will be forecast here as soon as it is scheduled. Full form, recent scoring and defending trend and every settled prediction are below.

Chelsea carry a strong attacking profile, creating 1.76 expected goals per game against a Premier League average of 1.46. Their finishing has lagged the chances they make — 0.75 goals a game against 1.76 expected. They have struggled lately, losing 3 of their last 5. Across 8 settled fixtures the model's high-confidence calls on Chelsea have been correct 63% of the time.

Form pulse

The last 5 settled results, most recent first.

Record

2W 1D 5L

Real goals

0.8 – 1.5

For / against, per match

Attack vs defence

How Chelsea compare with the England: Premier League average, per match.

Goals for

1.76

Above average

Goals against

1.39

Tighter than most

Scored1.76

Conceded1.39

The grey line on each bar is the England: Premier League average (1.46 scored, 1.46 conceded).

What the data says

Strong in attack

Averaging 1.76 xG per match · +0.30 above the England: Premier League average of 1.46.

📊 Chelsea in numbers

50 competitive matches · friendlies excluded

1.6

Goals · per game

let in 1.4

🏠 1.4✈️ 1.7

6.0

Corners · per game

give up 3.9

🏠 7.1✈️ 4.8

13.4

Shots · per game

faced 10.4

🏠 15.2✈️ 11.5

4.6

On target · per game

faced 4.1

🏠 4.7✈️ 4.5

🗓️ Last 6 games

24 May

1-2

@ Sunderland

🚩 2-6

19 May

2-1

vs Tottenham

🚩 3-4

16 May

0-1

vs Manchester City

🚩 -

09 May

1-1

@ Liverpool

🚩 2-5

04 May

1-3

vs Nott'm Forest

🚩 10-1

26 Apr

1-0

vs Leeds

🚩 6-4

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's tips →

Model accuracy on Chelsea matches

63%

of high-confidence calls correct, over 8

When the model makes a high-confidence call on a Chelsea fixture, it is right 5 out of 8 (63%). Every prediction is logged before kickoff and settled publicly.

Model accuracy on Chelsea by market

Goals (Over/Under)60%3/5

Result50%1/2

How to read this: each row groups settled high-confidence calls the model made on Chelsea fixtures by market type, so you can see where the model has the strongest read on this team. Higher hit rate = more reliable category for Chelsea matches.