Bawler / FRANCE: Ligue 1 / Monaco
Team profile · FRANCE: Ligue 1

Monaco Prediction

Form, fixtures and every settled pick · updated 13 August 2026

Matches
5
5 settled
Goals for
1.77
Expected, per match
Goals against
1.54
Expected, per match
High-confidence accuracy
80%
4/5 calls

Monaco prediction: Bawler's model rates Monaco at 1.77 expected goals scored and 1.54 conceded per match across 5 settled fixtures, and its high-confidence calls on them have been correct 80% of the time. They have won 3 of their last 5 settled matches. No Monaco fixture falls inside the next 30 days — the next one will be forecast here as soon as it is scheduled. Full form, recent scoring and defending trend and every settled prediction are below.

Monaco carry a strong attacking profile, creating 1.77 expected goals per game against a Ligue 1 average of 1.40. Across 5 settled fixtures the model's high-confidence calls on Monaco have been correct 80% of the time.

Form pulse

The last 5 settled results, most recent first.

Record
3W 0D 2L
Real goals
2.0 – 1.8
For / against, per match

Attack vs defence

How Monaco compare with the FRANCE: Ligue 1 average, per match.

Goals for
1.77
Above average
Goals against
1.54
Leakier than most
Scored1.77
Conceded1.54

The grey line on each bar is the FRANCE: Ligue 1 average (1.40 scored, 1.50 conceded).

What the data says
Strong in attack
Averaging 1.77 xG per match · +0.38 above the FRANCE: Ligue 1 average of 1.40.
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 80% of the time on Monaco fixtures (4/5).

📊 Monaco in numbers

44 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.6
Goals · per game
let in 1.7
🏠 1.7✈️ 1.6
5.0
Corners · per game
give up 4.5
🏠 5.0✈️ 5.0
12.7
Shots · per game
faced 14.6
🏠 12.4✈️ 13.0
4.5
On target · per game
faced 4.6
🏠 4.6✈️ 4.4
🗓️ Last 6 games
17 May
4-5
@ Strasbourg
🚩 6-4
10 May
0-1
vs Lille
🚩 5-2
02 May
2-1
@ Metz
🚩 9-5
25 Apr
2-2
@ Toulouse
🚩 2-4
19 Apr
2-2
vs Auxerre
🚩 11-3
10 Apr
1-4
@ Paris
🚩 11-1

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's tips →

Model accuracy on Monaco matches
80%
of high-confidence calls correct, over 5

When the model makes a high-confidence call on a Monaco fixture, it is right 4 out of 5 (80%). This is well above the cross-league baseline of ~65%. Every prediction is logged before kickoff and settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 5)

Transfer activity

INMatthis AblineLWfrom Nantes€25m
INAnsu FatiAMfrom Barcelona€11m
INSadibou SanéCBfrom Metz€7m
INFlávio NazinhoLBfrom Cercle BruggeUndisclosed
INMathys DetourbetLWfrom Manchester CityLoan
OUTAladji BambaDMto Newcastle United€36m
OUTMaghnes AklioucheRWto Paris Saint-GermainUndisclosed
OUTCaio HenriqueLBto Ajax€11m
OUTKassoum OuattaraLMto Beşiktaş€10m
OUTRadoslaw MajeckiGKto Pafos FCLoan
OUTLucas MichalSTto Cercle BruggeLoan
OUTYanis BenchaouchGKto Red StarFree transfer
OUTJoan TincrèsSTto Le HavreUndisclosed

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

Monaco prediction markets

More from Bawler

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly