Bawler / Spain: La Liga / Atlético Madrid
Team profile · Spain: La Liga

Atlético Madrid Prediction

Form, fixtures and every settled pick · updated 13 August 2026

Matches
7
7 settled
Goals for
1.40
Expected, per match
Goals against
1.63
Expected, per match
High-confidence accuracy
86%
6/7 calls

Atlético Madrid prediction: Bawler's model rates Atlético Madrid at 1.40 expected goals scored and 1.63 conceded per match across 7 settled fixtures, and its high-confidence calls on them have been correct 86% of the time. Their last 5 settled matches read 2W 1D 2L. No Atlético Madrid fixture falls inside the next 30 days — the next one will be forecast here as soon as it is scheduled. Full form, recent scoring and defending trend and every settled prediction are below.

Atlético Madrid sit close to the La Liga average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.40 expected goals a game and conceding 1.63. Across 7 settled fixtures the model's high-confidence calls on Atlético Madrid have been correct 86% of the time.

Form pulse

The last 5 settled results, most recent first.

Record
3W 1D 3L
Real goals
1.1 – 1.4
For / against, per match

Attack vs defence

How Atlético Madrid compare with the Spain: La Liga average, per match.

Goals for
1.40
Below average
Goals against
1.63
Leakier than most
Scored1.40
Conceded1.63

The grey line on each bar is the Spain: La Liga average (1.44 scored, 1.46 conceded).

What the data says
Leaky defensively
Conceding 1.63 xG per match · +0.17 vs league average of 1.46.
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 80% of the time on Atlético Madrid fixtures (4/5).

📊 Atlético Madrid in numbers

54 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.8
Goals · per game
let in 1.3
🏠 2.2✈️ 1.3
6.0
Corners · per game
give up 4.3
🏠 7.0✈️ 5.0
13.1
Shots · per game
faced 12.0
🏠 15.1✈️ 11.2
5.1
On target · per game
faced 4.2
🏠 6.2✈️ 4.0
🗓️ Last 6 games
24 May
1-5
@ Villarreal
🚩 9-5
17 May
1-0
vs Girona
🚩 9-8
12 May
2-1
@ Osasuna
🚩 4-8
09 May
0-1
vs Celta Vigo
🚩 10-0
05 May
0-1
@ Arsenal
🚩 2-5
02 May
2-0
@ Valencia
🚩 7-1

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's tips →

Model accuracy on Atlético Madrid matches
86%
of high-confidence calls correct, over 7

When the model makes a high-confidence call on a Atlético Madrid fixture, it is right 6 out of 7 (86%). This is well above the cross-league baseline of ~65%. Every prediction is logged before kickoff and settled publicly.

Model accuracy on Atlético Madrid by market
Goals (Over/Under)80%4/5
Result100%2/2

How to read this: each row groups settled high-confidence calls the model made on Atlético Madrid fixtures by market type, so you can see where the model has the strongest read on this team. Higher hit rate = more reliable category for Atlético Madrid matches.

Recent matches (last 7)

Transfer activity

INKang-In LeeCMfrom Paris Saint-Germain€40m
INMorten HjulmandDMfrom Sporting CP€40m
INAlejandro GrimaldoLWBfrom Bayer Leverkusen€22m
OUTThiago AlmadaLMto River Plate€20m
OUTNahuel MolinaRBto Roma€18m
OUTAntoine GriezmannSTto Orlando CityUndisclosed
OUTClément LengletCBto BenficaLoan
OUTJavi MorcilloCMto Elche€1.5m
OUTJavi GalánLBto Free agentUndisclosed
OUTJulio DíazLBto Sevilla€1m
OUTHoratiu MoldovanGKto EyüpsporLoan

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

Atlético Madrid prediction markets

More from Bawler

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly