Bawler / Italy: Serie A / Napoli
Team profile · Italy: Serie A

Napoli Prediction

Form, fixtures and every settled pick · updated 13 August 2026

Matches
6
6 settled
Goals for
1.43
Expected, per match
Goals against
1.04
Expected, per match
High-confidence accuracy
33%
2/6 calls

Napoli prediction: Bawler's model rates Napoli at 1.43 expected goals scored and 1.04 conceded per match across 6 settled fixtures, and its high-confidence calls on them have been correct 33% of the time. They have won 3 of their last 5 settled matches. No Napoli fixture falls inside the next 30 days — the next one will be forecast here as soon as it is scheduled. Full form, recent scoring and defending trend and every settled prediction are below.

Napoli defend well, conceding 1.04 expected goals per game — below the Serie A average of 1.36. Across 6 settled fixtures the model's high-confidence calls on Napoli have been correct 33% of the time.

Form pulse

The last 5 settled results, most recent first.

Record
4W 0D 2L
Real goals
1.3 – 0.8
For / against, per match

Attack vs defence

How Napoli compare with the Italy: Serie A average, per match.

Goals for
1.43
Above average
Goals against
1.04
Tighter than most
Scored1.43
Conceded1.04

The grey line on each bar is the Italy: Serie A average (1.20 scored, 1.36 conceded).

What the data says
Strong in attack
Averaging 1.43 xG per match · +0.23 above the Italy: Serie A average of 1.20.
Solid defensively
Conceding 1.04 xG per match · -0.32 vs league average of 1.36.

📊 Napoli in numbers

46 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.5
Goals · per game
let in 1.1
🏠 1.7✈️ 1.2
5.6
Corners · per game
give up 2.9
🏠 6.1✈️ 5.0
13.0
Shots · per game
faced 10.5
🏠 13.8✈️ 12.1
4.5
On target · per game
faced 3.4
🏠 5.1✈️ 3.9
🗓️ Last 6 games
24 May
1-0
vs Udinese
🚩 3-3
17 May
3-0
@ Pisa
🚩 6-1
11 May
2-3
vs Bologna
🚩 7-1
02 May
0-0
@ Como
🚩 2-3
24 Apr
4-0
vs Cremonese
🚩 7-5
18 Apr
0-2
vs Lazio
🚩 12-0

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's tips →

Model accuracy on Napoli matches
33%
of high-confidence calls correct, over 6

When the model makes a high-confidence call on a Napoli fixture, it is right 2 out of 6 (33%). This sits below the cross-league baseline — the model finds this team harder to read than most. Every prediction is logged before kickoff and settled publicly.

Model accuracy on Napoli by market
Result50%2/4
Goals (Over/Under)0%0/2

How to read this: each row groups settled high-confidence calls the model made on Napoli fixtures by market type, so you can see where the model has the strongest read on this team. Higher hit rate = more reliable category for Napoli matches.

Recent matches (last 6)

Transfer activity

INRasmus HøjlundSTfrom Manchester United€44m
INAlisson SantosAMfrom Sporting CP€17m
INVanja Milinkovic-SavicGKfrom Torino€6m
INMattia Espositofrom Sorrento€700k
OUTMiguel GutiérrezLWBto Bayer Leverkusen€26m
OUTEljif ElmasAMto Free agentUndisclosed
OUTGiovanni SimeoneSTto Torino€7.2m
OUTRomelu LukakuSTto Fenerbahçe€6m
OUTAlessandro ZanoliRMto Udinese€5m
OUTLuis HasaCMto FrosinoneUndisclosed
OUTGiuseppe AmbrosinoSTto ModenaLoan
OUTAlessio ZerbinRMto FrosinoneUndisclosed

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

Napoli prediction markets

More from Bawler

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly