Bawler / England: Premier League / Liverpool
Team profile · England: Premier League

Liverpool Prediction

Form, fixtures and every settled pick · updated 13 August 2026

Matches
5
5 settled
Goals for
1.50
Expected, per match
Goals against
1.55
Expected, per match
High-confidence accuracy
80%
4/5 calls

Liverpool prediction: Bawler's model rates Liverpool at 1.50 expected goals scored and 1.55 conceded per match across 5 settled fixtures, and its high-confidence calls on them have been correct 80% of the time. They have lost 3 of their last 5 settled matches. No Liverpool fixture falls inside the next 30 days — the next one will be forecast here as soon as it is scheduled. Full form, recent scoring and defending trend and every settled prediction are below.

Liverpool sit close to the Premier League average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.50 expected goals a game and conceding 1.55. Their finishing has lagged the chances they make — 1.00 goals a game against 1.50 expected. They have struggled lately, losing 3 of their last 5. Across 5 settled fixtures the model's high-confidence calls on Liverpool have been correct 80% of the time.

Form pulse

The last 5 settled results, most recent first.

Record
0W 2D 3L
Real goals
1.0 – 2.0
For / against, per match

Attack vs defence

How Liverpool compare with the England: Premier League average, per match.

Goals for
1.50
Above average
Goals against
1.55
Leakier than most
Scored1.50
Conceded1.55

The grey line on each bar is the England: Premier League average (1.46 scored, 1.46 conceded).

What the data says
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 100% of the time on Liverpool fixtures (4/4).

📊 Liverpool in numbers

52 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.7
Goals · per game
let in 1.4
🏠 1.9✈️ 1.5
6.1
Corners · per game
give up 4.3
🏠 6.5✈️ 5.7
16.1
Shots · per game
faced 11.1
🏠 18.5✈️ 13.5
5.2
On target · per game
faced 3.9
🏠 6.0✈️ 4.4
🗓️ Last 6 games
02 Aug
2-4
vs Leeds
🚩 3-7
30 Jul
1-0
vs Wrexham
🚩 3-4
24 May
1-1
vs Brentford
🚩 14-2
15 May
2-4
@ Aston Villa
🚩 9-4
09 May
1-1
vs Chelsea
🚩 5-2
03 May
2-3
@ Manchester United
🚩 2-3

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's tips →

Model accuracy on Liverpool matches
80%
of high-confidence calls correct, over 5

When the model makes a high-confidence call on a Liverpool fixture, it is right 4 out of 5 (80%). This is well above the cross-league baseline of ~65%. Every prediction is logged before kickoff and settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 5)

Transfer activity

INVíctor MuñozLWfrom Osasuna€40m
INRonald AraujoCBfrom BarcelonaLoan
OUTMohamed SalahRWto Free agentFree transfer
OUTIbrahima KonatéCBto Real MadridFree transfer
OUTIbrahima KonatéCBto Free agentUndisclosed
OUTAndrew RobertsonLBto Tottenham HotspurFree transfer
OUTÁrmin PécsiGKto HartbergLoan
OUTLuca StephensonRMto Bolton Wanderers€820k
OUTTrent Koné-DohertyLWto Molde€750k
OUTRhys WilliamsCBto Free agentFree transfer

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

FPL assets at this club (2026/27 projections)

IsakIsakFWD · £9.0m · 13.5% owned4.0 pts
WirtzWirtzMID · £7.5m · 14.4% owned3.9 pts
VirgilVirgilDEF · £6.5m · 16.8% owned3.8 pts
SzoboszlaiSzoboszlaiMID · £7.0m · 43.5% owned3.0 pts
A.BeckerA.BeckerGKP · £5.5m · 4% owned2.9 pts
Next 5:NEW (A)NFO (H)IPS (A)FUL (H)BOU (A)

Full predicted points table → · Fixture difficulty matrix →

Liverpool prediction markets

More from Bawler

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly