Bawler / USA: MLS / Atlanta Utd
Team profile · USA: MLS

Atlanta Utd Prediction

Form, fixtures and every settled pick · updated 13 August 2026

Matches
11
10 settled
Goals for
1.19
Expected, per match
Goals against
1.60
Expected, per match
High-confidence accuracy
90%
9/10 calls

Atlanta Utd prediction: for Atlanta Utd's next match — Atlanta Utd vs New York Red Bulls on Saturday 15 Aug, 23:30 UTC — Bawler's model makes it a Atlanta Utd win looks most likely (45%). The model's strongest call is Over 1.5 Goals.

Atlanta Utd sit close to the MLS average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.19 expected goals a game and conceding 1.60. They have struggled lately, losing 4 of their last 5. Next up is Red Bull New York, where the model has them narrowly ahead at 45%.

Next match

Home vs New York Red Bulls · Saturday 15 Aug, 23:30 UTC

Win
45%
Atlanta Utd
Draw
27%
Loss
28%
Opponent
High confidence · Over 1.5 Goals @ 85%
Full match preview

Form pulse

The last 5 settled results, most recent first.

Record
1W 2D 7L
Real goals
1.1 – 2.1
For / against, per match

Attack vs defence

How Atlanta Utd compare with the USA: MLS average, per match.

Goals for
1.19
Below average
Goals against
1.60
Leakier than most
Scored1.19
Conceded1.60

The grey line on each bar is the USA: MLS average (1.48 scored, 1.45 conceded).

What the data says
Misfiring in attack
Averaging 1.19 xG per match · -0.28 above the USA: MLS average of 1.48.
Leaky defensively
Conceding 1.60 xG per match · +0.15 vs league average of 1.45.
Model is strongest on: Result
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 100% of the time on Atlanta Utd fixtures (3/3).

📊 Atlanta Utd in numbers

44 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.1
Goals · per game
let in 1.9
🏠 1.6✈️ 0.7
4.4
Corners · per game
give up 5.2
🏠 5.2✈️ 3.7
12.1
Shots · per game
faced 13.0
🏠 12.8✈️ 11.4
4.0
On target · per game
faced 5.5
🏠 4.7✈️ 3.4
🗓️ Last 6 games
01 Aug
2-3
@ Philadelphia Union
🚩 2-12
25 Jul
1-4
@ New England Revolution
🚩 6-4
23 Jul
2-2
@ Charlotte
🚩 3-6
18 Jul
0-1
@ Nashville
🚩 2-4
24 May
0-2
@ Columbus Crew
🚩 3-2
16 May
1-1
@ Orlando City
🚩 10-4

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's tips →

Model accuracy on Atlanta Utd matches
90%
of high-confidence calls correct, over 10

When the model makes a high-confidence call on a Atlanta Utd fixture, it is right 9 out of 10 (90%). This is well above the cross-league baseline of ~65%. Every prediction is logged before kickoff and settled publicly.

Model accuracy on Atlanta Utd by market
Goals (Over/Under)86%6/7
Result100%3/3

How to read this: each row groups settled high-confidence calls the model made on Atlanta Utd fixtures by market type, so you can see where the model has the strongest read on this team. Higher hit rate = more reliable category for Atlanta Utd matches.

Recent matches (last 10)

Atlanta Utd prediction markets

More from Bawler

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly