Bawler / ENGLAND: Championship / Middlesbrough
Team profile · ENGLAND: Championship

Middlesbrough Prediction

Form, fixtures and every settled pick · updated 13 August 2026

Matches
8
7 settled
Goals for
1.45
Expected, per match
Goals against
1.28
Expected, per match
High-confidence accuracy
57%
4/7 calls

Middlesbrough prediction: for Middlesbrough's next match — Middlesbrough vs Lincoln City on Saturday 15 Aug, 14:00 UTC — Bawler's model makes it a Middlesbrough win looks most likely (50%). The model's strongest call is Over 1.5 Goals.

Middlesbrough sit close to the Championship average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.45 expected goals a game and conceding 1.28. Their finishing has lagged the chances they make — 0.71 goals a game against 1.45 expected. Next up is Lincoln City, where the model has them narrowly ahead at 50%.

Next match

Home vs Lincoln City · Saturday 15 Aug, 14:00 UTC

Win
50%
This team
Draw
31%
Loss
19%
Lincoln City
High confidence · Over 1.5 Goals @ 77%
Full match preview

Form pulse

The last 5 settled results, most recent first.

Record
1W 3D 3L
Real goals
0.7 – 1.0
For / against, per match

Attack vs defence

How Middlesbrough compare with the ENGLAND: Championship average, per match.

Goals for
1.45
Above average
Goals against
1.28
Tighter than most
Scored1.45
Conceded1.28

The grey line on each bar is the ENGLAND: Championship average (1.29 scored, 1.28 conceded).

What the data says
Strong in attack
Averaging 1.45 xG per match · +0.16 above the ENGLAND: Championship average of 1.29.

📊 Middlesbrough in numbers

50 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.5
Goals · per game
let in 1.0
🏠 1.4✈️ 1.6
6.8
Corners · per game
give up 4.1
🏠 7.8✈️ 5.9
16.2
Shots · per game
faced 10.1
🏠 17.3✈️ 15.1
4.9
On target · per game
faced 3.2
🏠 5.2✈️ 4.6
🗓️ Last 6 games
07 Aug
1-0
vs Wrexham
🚩 -
23 May
0-1
@ Hull
🚩 3-1
12 May
1-2
@ Southampton
🚩 -
09 May
0-0
vs Southampton
🚩 11-1
02 May
2-2
@ Wrexham
🚩 3-6
25 Apr
5-1
vs Watford
🚩 6-3

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's tips →

Model accuracy on Middlesbrough matches
57%
of high-confidence calls correct, over 7

When the model makes a high-confidence call on a Middlesbrough fixture, it is right 4 out of 7 (57%). Every prediction is logged before kickoff and settled publicly.

Model accuracy on Middlesbrough by market
Result60%3/5
Goals (Over/Under)50%1/2

How to read this: each row groups settled high-confidence calls the model made on Middlesbrough fixtures by market type, so you can see where the model has the strongest read on this team. Higher hit rate = more reliable category for Middlesbrough matches.

Recent matches (last 7)

Transfer activity

INWill LankshearSTfrom Tottenham Hotspur€12m
INRadek VítekGKfrom Manchester United€8.1m
INMax ArfstenLWBfrom Columbus Crew€6.5m
INJeremy SarmientoLWfrom Brighton & Hove Albion€3.9m
INKyle JosephSTfrom Hull CityUndisclosed
INSebastian BerhalterDMfrom Vancouver Whitecaps€1.8m
INMyles Peart-HarrisLWfrom Oxford UnitedFree transfer
INJon McLaughlinGKfrom Free agentFree transfer
OUTHayden HackneyDMto Everton€19m
OUTDael FryCBto Birmingham CityFree transfer
OUTDelano BurgzorgLWto Preston North EndLoan
OUTKaly SèneSTto Young BoysUndisclosed
OUTMarcus ForssRWto Free agentUndisclosed
OUTAlex GilbertDMto Free agentUndisclosed
OUTSamuel SilveraLWBto Free agentUndisclosed
OUTFinley MunroeLWBto BlackpoolLoan

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

Middlesbrough prediction markets

More from Bawler

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly