Bawler / England: Premier League / Arsenal

Team profile · England: Premier League

Arsenal Prediction

Form, fixtures and every settled pick · updated 13 August 2026

Matches

7 settled

Goals for

1.51

Expected, per match

Goals against

1.23

Expected, per match

High-confidence accuracy

86%

6/7 calls

Arsenal prediction: Bawler's model rates Arsenal at 1.51 expected goals scored and 1.23 conceded per match across 7 settled fixtures, and its high-confidence calls on them have been correct 86% of the time. They are unbeaten across their last 5 settled matches. No Arsenal fixture falls inside the next 30 days — the next one will be forecast here as soon as it is scheduled. Full form, recent scoring and defending trend and every settled prediction are below.

Arsenal sit close to the Premier League average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.51 expected goals a game and conceding 1.23. Their finishing has lagged the chances they make — 0.86 goals a game against 1.51 expected. They are unbeaten across their last 5 settled matches. Across 7 settled fixtures the model's high-confidence calls on Arsenal have been correct 86% of the time.

Form pulse

The last 5 settled results, most recent first.

Record

4W 3D 0L

Real goals

0.9 – 0.3

For / against, per match

Attack vs defence

How Arsenal compare with the England: Premier League average, per match.

Goals for

1.51

Above average

Goals against

1.23

Tighter than most

Scored1.51

Conceded1.23

The grey line on each bar is the England: Premier League average (1.46 scored, 1.46 conceded).

What the data says

Solid defensively

Conceding 1.23 xG per match · -0.23 vs league average of 1.46.

Model is strongest on: Result

High-confidence calls in this market are correct 100% of the time on Arsenal fixtures (5/5).

📊 Arsenal in numbers

54 competitive matches · friendlies excluded

1.9

Goals · per game

let in 0.7

🏠 2.1✈️ 1.6

5.6

Corners · per game

give up 3.2

🏠 6.1✈️ 5.1

14.4

Shots · per game

faced 8.6

🏠 16.4✈️ 12.5

5.2

On target · per game

faced 2.4

🏠 5.5✈️ 5.0

🗓️ Last 6 games

09 Aug

2-3

vs Dortmund

🚩 -

30 May

1-1

@ PSG

🚩 -

24 May

2-1

@ Crystal Palace

🚩 4-3

18 May

1-0

vs Burnley

🚩 3-3

10 May

1-0

@ West Ham

🚩 3-4

05 May

1-0

vs Atlético Madrid

🚩 5-2

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's tips →

Model accuracy on Arsenal matches

86%

of high-confidence calls correct, over 7

When the model makes a high-confidence call on a Arsenal fixture, it is right 6 out of 7 (86%). This is well above the cross-league baseline of ~65%. Every prediction is logged before kickoff and settled publicly.

Model accuracy on Arsenal by market

Result100%5/5

Goals (Over/Under)50%1/2

How to read this: each row groups settled high-confidence calls the model made on Arsenal fixtures by market type, so you can see where the model has the strongest read on this team. Higher hit rate = more reliable category for Arsenal matches.