Bawler / FRANCE: Ligue 1 / Marseille
Team profile · FRANCE: Ligue 1

Marseille Prediction

Form, fixtures and every settled pick · updated 13 August 2026

Matches
5
5 settled
Goals for
1.61
Expected, per match
Goals against
1.46
Expected, per match
High-confidence accuracy
80%
4/5 calls

Marseille prediction: Bawler's model rates Marseille at 1.61 expected goals scored and 1.46 conceded per match across 5 settled fixtures, and its high-confidence calls on them have been correct 80% of the time. They have lost 3 of their last 5 settled matches. No Marseille fixture falls inside the next 30 days — the next one will be forecast here as soon as it is scheduled. Full form, recent scoring and defending trend and every settled prediction are below.

Marseille sit close to the Ligue 1 average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.61 expected goals a game and conceding 1.46. Their finishing has lagged the chances they make — 0.80 goals a game against 1.61 expected. They have struggled lately, losing 3 of their last 5. Across 5 settled fixtures the model's high-confidence calls on Marseille have been correct 80% of the time.

Form pulse

The last 5 settled results, most recent first.

Record
1W 1D 3L
Real goals
0.8 – 1.4
For / against, per match

Attack vs defence

How Marseille compare with the FRANCE: Ligue 1 average, per match.

Goals for
1.61
Above average
Goals against
1.46
Tighter than most
Scored1.61
Conceded1.46

The grey line on each bar is the FRANCE: Ligue 1 average (1.40 scored, 1.50 conceded).

What the data says
Strong in attack
Averaging 1.61 xG per match · +0.21 above the FRANCE: Ligue 1 average of 1.40.
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 75% of the time on Marseille fixtures (3/4).

📊 Marseille in numbers

42 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.8
Goals · per game
let in 1.4
🏠 2.2✈️ 1.3
5.2
Corners · per game
give up 3.8
🏠 5.7✈️ 4.7
14.8
Shots · per game
faced 11.3
🏠 15.5✈️ 14.1
5.6
On target · per game
faced 4.4
🏠 6.1✈️ 5.2
🗓️ Last 6 games
17 May
3-1
vs Rennes
🚩 4-11
10 May
1-0
@ Le Havre
🚩 0-3
02 May
0-3
@ Nantes
🚩 8-7
26 Apr
1-1
vs Nice
🚩 7-1
18 Apr
0-2
@ Lorient
🚩 7-1
10 Apr
3-1
vs Metz
🚩 7-4

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's tips →

Model accuracy on Marseille matches
80%
of high-confidence calls correct, over 5

When the model makes a high-confidence call on a Marseille fixture, it is right 4 out of 5 (80%). This is well above the cross-league baseline of ~65%. Every prediction is logged before kickoff and settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 5)

Transfer activity

INFacundo MedinaCBfrom Lens€18m
INTimothy WeahRBfrom Juventus€15m
INHamed TraorèAMfrom AFC Bournemouth€7.5m
OUTMason GreenwoodRWto Fenerbahçe€40m
OUTFacundo MedinaCBto Bayer Leverkusen€23m
OUTHamed TraorèAMto GenoaLoan
OUTBilal NadirAMto Hamburger SVFree transfer
OUTGerónimo RulliGKto Manchester City€2m
OUTPierre-Emerick AubameyangSTto Deportivo A Coruña€1.5m
OUTKeyliane AbdallahRWto GimnasticLoan
OUTFrançois MugheRMto AEL LimassolUndisclosed

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

Marseille prediction markets

More from Bawler

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly