About Bawler
Bawler is a football prediction model that puts a chance on every match before it starts. For each match it also builds one combined pick, Bawler's pick. Every Bawler's pick is logged before kickoff, settled from the final match stats and kept on the record, right or wrong.
Who builds Bawler
Bawler is built by Charlie, its founder. The idea started from a simple frustration: almost every football prediction site shows off its winners and quietly buries the losers, so there is no honest way to tell whether anyone is actually any good. Charlie's answer was to build the model in public and keep a record of every pick instead of posting screenshots. Bawler is an independent project, not affiliated with any club or competition.
Why we build in public
Football prediction is full of theatre: screenshots of winners, quietly deleted losers, and records that can't be checked. We took the opposite approach. Every call is locked before kickoff (usually at about 5pm UK time, 2 days ahead), and we let the results land where they land. The Bawler's pick record shows every pick, how it settled, and the misses alongside the wins.
The model
At its core Bawler is a scoring model driven by each team's recent scoring and defending form, home advantage, opponent strength and lineup data, recalibrated weekly against actual outcomes. For each fixture it builds Bawler's pick from legs it can measure (the result, shots, corners and named players), and shows up to three single calls: most likely, close call and an outside shot. The full method is written up on the methodology page.
Our commitment
- Losing picks stay on the record alongside the winners. A pick is void, not lost, when the match is not played. If a named player doesn't start, his part is dropped and the pick is settled on the rest.
- Results settle automatically — we don't mark our own homework.
- Probabilities are estimates, not promises — a likely call still misses some of the time.
Contact & press
For press, partnerships or data questions, reach us on X at @bawlerai.