Bawler / PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal / Benfica
Team profile · PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal

Benfica Prediction

Form, fixtures and every settled pick · updated 13 August 2026

Matches
7
6 settled
Goals for
1.82
Expected, per match
Goals against
1.04
Expected, per match
High-confidence accuracy
100%
6/6 calls

Benfica prediction: for Benfica's next match — Hearts vs Benfica on Thursday 13 Aug, 18:45 UTC — Bawler's model makes it Hearts are favoured (41%). The model's strongest call is Over 1.5 Goals.

Benfica are the most complete profile in this data: creating 1.82 expected goals a game while giving up just 1.04. They have been finishing above their chances, scoring 2.83 a game against 1.82 expected. They are unbeaten across their last 5 settled matches. Next up is a trip to Heart of Midlothian, where the model has them as underdogs at 26%.

Next match

Away vs Hearts · Thursday 13 Aug, 18:45 UTC

Win
26%
Benfica
Draw
33%
Loss
41%
Hearts
High confidence · Over 1.5 Goals @ 73%
Full match preview

Form pulse

The last 5 settled results, most recent first.

Record
3W 3D 0L
Real goals
2.8 – 1.2
For / against, per match

Attack vs defence

How Benfica compare with the PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal average, per match.

Goals for
1.82
Above average
Goals against
1.04
Tighter than most
Scored1.82
Conceded1.04

The grey line on each bar is the PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal average (1.36 scored, 1.38 conceded).

What the data says
Strong in attack
Averaging 1.82 xG per match · +0.46 above the PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal average of 1.36.
Solid defensively
Conceding 1.04 xG per match · -0.34 vs league average of 1.38.
Model is strongest on: Result
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 100% of the time on Benfica fixtures (4/4).
Squad availability · Benfica vs Hearts
Fetching squad availability…

How to read this: known injuries, suspensions, and doubtful players for both squads, pulled from FotMob's official feed. Updates close to kickoff as managers confirm availability.

📊 Benfica in numbers

47 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
2.0
Goals · per game
let in 1.0
🏠 2.4✈️ 1.6
7.0
Corners · per game
give up 3.3
🏠 7.1✈️ 6.8
16.9
Shots · per game
faced 9.7
🏠 18.7✈️ 14.8
6.0
On target · per game
faced 3.5
🏠 7.2✈️ 4.7
🗓️ Last 6 games
09 Aug
2-2
vs Academico Viseu
🚩 10-2
09 Aug
2-2
vs Académico de Viseu
🚩 10-2
06 Aug
6-1
vs Hearts
🚩 6-2
16 May
3-1
@ Estoril
🚩 9-2
11 May
2-2
vs Braga
🚩 8-2
02 May
2-2
@ Famalicao
🚩 4-6

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's tips →

Model accuracy on Benfica matches
100%
of high-confidence calls correct, over 6

When the model makes a high-confidence call on a Benfica fixture, it is right 6 out of 6 (100%). This is well above the cross-league baseline of ~65%. Every prediction is logged before kickoff and settled publicly.

Model accuracy on Benfica by market
Result100%4/4
Goals (Over/Under)100%2/2

How to read this: each row groups settled high-confidence calls the model made on Benfica fixtures by market type, so you can see where the model has the strongest read on this team. Higher hit rate = more reliable category for Benfica matches.

Recent matches (last 6)

Transfer activity

INJhon DuránSTfrom Al Nassr FCLoan
INJakub KaminskiAMfrom 1. FC Köln€17m
INEnzo BarrenecheaDMfrom Aston Villa€12m
INGabriel Índiofrom Athletic Club€4m
INClément LengletCBfrom Atletico MadridLoan
OUTOrkun KökcüAMto Beşiktaş€30m
OUTAntónio SilvaCBto AFC Bournemouth€25m
OUTFlorentinoCMto Burnley€24m
OUTFranjo IvanovicSTto LensLoan
OUTSidny Lopes CabralLBto Trabzonspor€7m
OUTGustavo MarquesCBto Red Bull Bragantino€3.5m
OUTGonçalo OliveiraCBto Rennes€3.5m
OUTGustavo VarelaSTto Monza€2.5m

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

Benfica prediction markets

More from Bawler

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly