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Al Ittihad vs Neom SC prediction — Saudi Pro League · Fri 6 Nov · 17:30 UK

Saudi Pro League · Fri 6 Nov · 17:30 UK
Al Ittihad 44Draw 26Neom SC 30
Al Ittihad or draw is at 70%, where it was 4 days ago
The call
70%
Al Ittihad or draw
Calls on the result published at 70–75% have landed 66% of the time
147 of 222 settledFull record →
2.8
Goals expected
11d 15hUntil lineups lock
01

Team stats

What we expect from each side, next to how they have been doing lately.

Al IttihadNeom SC
IN SHORTAl Ittihad are forecast to come out ahead on every measure here.
GoalsAl Ittihad +0.3
1.6
Last 6 avg 2.5
▼ Forecast 0.9 below recent
2+ goals in 6 of 6
1.3
Last 6 avg 1.5
▼ Forecast 0.2 below recent
1+ goals in 4 of 6
ShotsAl Ittihad +0.7
13.9
Last 6 avg 15.7
▼ Forecast 1.8 below recent
14+ shots in 4 of 6
13.2
Last 6 avg 12.3
▲ Forecast 0.9 above recent
13+ shots in 2 of 6
On targetAl Ittihad +0.1
4.4
Last 6 avg 5.7
▼ Forecast 1.3 below recent
4+ on target in 5 of 6
4.3
Last 6 avg 3.7
▲ Forecast 0.6 above recent
4+ on target in 3 of 6
CornersAl Ittihad +1.3
5.5
Last 6 avg 4.8
▲ Forecast 0.7 above recent
5+ corners in 2 of 6
4.2
Last 6 avg 6.0
▼ Forecast 1.8 below recent
4+ corners in 5 of 6
GoalsAl Ittihad +0.2
0.6
No recent record
2+ goals in 6 of 6
0.4
No recent record
1+ goals in 4 of 6
ShotsAl Ittihad +0.5
6.5
No recent record
14+ shots in 4 of 6
5.9
No recent record
13+ shots in 2 of 6
On targetAl Ittihad +0.3
2.1
No recent record
4+ on target in 5 of 6
1.9
No recent record
4+ on target in 3 of 6
CornersAl Ittihad +0.6
2.6
No recent record
5+ corners in 2 of 6
2.0
No recent record
4+ corners in 5 of 6
GoalsAl Ittihad +0.1
0.9
No recent record
2+ goals in 6 of 6
0.8
No recent record
1+ goals in 4 of 6
ShotsAl Ittihad +0.2
7.4
No recent record
14+ shots in 4 of 6
7.3
No recent record
13+ shots in 2 of 6
On targetNeom SC +0.2
2.2
No recent record
4+ on target in 5 of 6
2.4
No recent record
4+ on target in 3 of 6
CornersAl Ittihad +0.7
2.9
No recent record
5+ corners in 2 of 6
2.2
No recent record
4+ corners in 5 of 6

Each card is drawn on one scale, so the two bars are directly comparable. “Above recent” means our forecast is higher than their average over the last six.

02

Match odds

How likely the big moments are, and what they add up to.

80%
Goal before half-time
At least one goal in the first 45 minutes.
57%
Both teams score
Each side finds the net at least once.
54%
3 or more goals
Three or more goals in the match, from either side.
Key takeaways
FAVOURITES
Al Ittihad lead on every measure: goals (1.6 v 1.3), shots (13.9 v 13.2), on target (4.4 v 4.3).
OPEN GAME
Goals at both ends are likely: 57% both teams score, and 54% for three or more goals.
EARLY GOAL
Al Ittihad are likelier to score first half: 65% to score before half-time, against 42% for Neom SC. 80% that either side does.
FORM CHECK
Al Ittihad are forecast below recent form: 1.6 goals expected, against 2.5 on average over their last six.
03

First-half chances

How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time. A longer bar means more likely.

5+ shots
71%
64%
7+ shots
45%
38%
1+ shots on target
85%
80%
3+ shots on target
36%
29%
2+ corners
68%
54%
4+ corners
27%
16%

Our numbers, most likely first

Ranked by our probability, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.

MarketProbability4-day change
Al Ittihad to score79%−1
Over 1.5 goals78%0
Neom SC to score72%0
Under 3.5 goals68%+1

In plain English

Al Ittihad are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. They have won five of their last six. The model sees around three goals in it.

What would change the call

Al Ittihad or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.

Al Ittihad lead 1–0 at half-time70% → 94%
Neom SC lead 1–0 at half-time70% → 36%
Goalless at half-time70% → 74%

Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.

Al Ittihad · last 6

Wv Al Diriyah2–020 shots
Wat Al Ettifaq4–119 shots
Lat Al Hilal2–37 shots
Wat Al-Faisaly3–112 shots
Wv Al-Fayha2–121 shots
Wv Al Nassr FC2–115 shots

Neom SC · last 6

Wv Abha2–013 shots
Lat Al Nassr0–17 shots
Lv Al-Ettifaq0–112 shots
Dat Al Hazem1–19 shots
Wv Al Fateh FC4–221 shots
Wat Al Hilal2–012 shots

First half — what we expect

Al Ittihad
65%
to score before half-time
Neom SC
42%
to score before half-time

Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 80%

Al IttihadNeom SC
6.51st-half shots5.9
avg 8.3 · 3 away · 6+ in 5/6
avg 6.2 · 3 away · 6+ in 3/6
2.11st-half shots on target1.9
avg 3.5 · 3 away · 2+ in 6/6
avg 2.0 · 3 away · 2+ in 4/6
2.61st-half corners2.0
avg 2.8 · 3 away · 3+ in 4/6
avg 3.0 · 3 away · 2+ in 5/6

How the match splits

1st half2nd half
Shots · Al Ittihad6.57.4
Shots · Neom SC5.97.3
Shots on target · Al Ittihad2.12.2
Shots on target · Neom SC1.92.4
Corners · Al Ittihad2.62.9
Corners · Neom SC2.02.2
How to read this

First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).

Second half — who scores?

At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.

Model inputs

Al Ittihad form (last 6)W W W L W W
Expected goals gap (home minus away)+0.3 / match
Head-to-head, last 2Al Ittihad 1 · Draws 0 · Neom SC 1
Neom SC in their league tableUpper half

Head to head

Apr 2026Al Ittihad 3–4 Neom SC
Dec 2025Neom SC 1–3 Al Ittihad
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Common questions

Who will win Al Ittihad vs Neom SC?

Bawler's model rates this match: Al Ittihad are favoured (44% win probability vs 30% for Neom SC, 26% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.

What is the predicted score for Al Ittihad vs Neom SC?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Al Ittihad 1-1 Neom SC (12.4% probability). Expected total goals: 2.8.

How does Bawler predict Al Ittihad vs Neom SC?

Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Al Ittihad 44%, the draw 26% and Neom SC 30%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Al Ittihad vs Neom SC?

Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 57% chance. That is based on Al Ittihad expecting 1.57 goals and Neom SC 1.27.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Al Ittihad vs Neom SC?

Bawler's model expects 2.8 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 54%.

Around this fixture

Saudi Pro League table →
All fixtures & results →Al Ittihad form →Neom SC form →