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Al Hazem vs Al Nassr prediction — Saudi Pro League · Fri 6 Nov · 14:55 UK

Saudi Pro League · Fri 6 Nov · 14:55 UK
Al Hazem 12Draw 19Al Nassr 70
Al Nassr to win has not moved in 4 days — steady at 70%
The call
70%
Al Nassr to win
Calls on the result published at 70–75% have landed 66% of the time
147 of 222 settledFull record →
3.2
Goals expected
11d 13hUntil lineups lock

Our combination for this match

3 legs · built by the model
Al Nassr or Draw88%
Al Nassr Over 14.5 Shots77%
Al Nassr Over 4.5 Corners81%
59%
chance all land
Build your own →Multiplying the legs gives 55%. These are from one match and move together, so the real chance is higher.
01

Team stats

What we expect from each side, next to how they have been doing lately.

Al HazemAl Nassr
IN SHORTAl Nassr are forecast to come out ahead on every measure here, with almost three times as many goals as Al Hazem (2.3 v 0.9).
GoalsAl Nassr +1.5
0.9
Last 6 avg 1.2
▼ Forecast 0.3 below recent
1+ goals in 5 of 6
2.3
Last 6 avg 1.8
▲ Forecast 0.5 above recent
2+ goals in 3 of 6
ShotsAl Nassr +9.2
9.5
Last 6 avg 10.7
▼ Forecast 1.2 below recent
9+ shots in 3 of 6
18.7
Last 6 avg 15.7
▲ Forecast 3.0 above recent
19+ shots in 1 of 6
On targetAl Nassr +3.2
3.0
Last 6 avg 4.0
▼ Forecast 1.0 below recent
3+ on target in 5 of 6
6.2
Last 6 avg 5.5
▲ Forecast 0.7 above recent
6+ on target in 3 of 6
CornersAl Nassr +4.3
3.3
Last 6 avg 3.3
▼ Forecast 0.1 below recent
3+ corners in 4 of 6
7.6
Last 6 avg 7.7
▼ Forecast 0.1 below recent
8+ corners in 3 of 6
GoalsAl Nassr +0.3
0.3
No recent record
1+ goals in 5 of 6
0.6
No recent record
2+ goals in 3 of 6
ShotsAl Nassr +4.6
4.3
No recent record
9+ shots in 3 of 6
8.9
No recent record
19+ shots in 1 of 6
On targetAl Nassr +1.6
1.3
No recent record
3+ on target in 5 of 6
2.9
No recent record
6+ on target in 3 of 6
CornersAl Nassr +2.0
1.5
No recent record
3+ corners in 4 of 6
3.6
No recent record
8+ corners in 3 of 6
GoalsAl Nassr +1.1
0.6
No recent record
1+ goals in 5 of 6
1.7
No recent record
2+ goals in 3 of 6
ShotsAl Nassr +4.6
5.2
No recent record
9+ shots in 3 of 6
9.7
No recent record
19+ shots in 1 of 6
On targetAl Nassr +1.6
1.7
No recent record
3+ on target in 5 of 6
3.3
No recent record
6+ on target in 3 of 6
CornersAl Nassr +2.3
1.7
No recent record
3+ corners in 4 of 6
4.0
No recent record
8+ corners in 3 of 6

Each card is drawn on one scale, so the two bars are directly comparable. “Above recent” means our forecast is higher than their average over the last six.

02

Match odds

How likely the big moments are, and what they add up to.

70%
Goal before half-time
At least one goal in the first 45 minutes.
52%
Both teams score
Each side finds the net at least once.
62%
3 or more goals
Three or more goals in the match, from either side.
Key takeaways
FAVOURITES
Al Nassr lead on every measure: goals (2.3 v 0.9), shots (18.7 v 9.5), on target (6.2 v 3.0).
OPEN GAME
Goals at both ends are likely: 52% both teams score, and 62% for three or more goals.
EARLY GOAL
Al Nassr are likelier to score first half: 60% to score before half-time, against 25% for Al Hazem. 70% that either side does.
FORM CHECK
Al Nassr are forecast above recent form: 2.3 goals expected, against 1.8 on average over their last six.
03

First-half chances

How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time. A longer bar means more likely.

8+ shots
12%
62%
10+ shots
<10%
40%
2+ shots on target
36%
74%
4+ shots on target
<10%
33%
3+ corners
22%
64%
5+ corners
<10%
30%

Our numbers, most likely first

Ranked by our probability, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.

MarketProbability4-day change
Al Nassr to score90%0
Over 1.5 goals83%+1
Over 2.5 goals62%+1
Under 3.5 goals60%−1

In plain English

Al Nassr are the model's pick, without being a certainty. They have won four of their last six, the model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Al Hazem, and Al Hazem have not beaten them in their last five meetings. The model sees around three goals in it.

What would change the call

Al Nassr to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.

Al Hazem lead 1–0 at half-time70% → 24%
Al Nassr lead 1–0 at half-time70% → 86%
Goalless at half-time70% → 54%

Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.

Al Hazem · last 6

Dv Al Fayha2–214 shots
Lat Al Hilal0–15 shots
Lv Al Fateh FC2–312 shots
Dv Neom SC1–17 shots
Lat Al Ahli1–318 shots
Wv Al-Taawoun1–08 shots

Al Nassr · last 6

Wat Al Faisaly3–110 shots
Wv Neom SC1–017 shots
Wv Al Diriyah3–017 shots
Dat Al Khaleej1–115 shots
Wv Abha2–119 shots
Lat Al Ittihad1–216 shots

First half — what we expect

Al Hazem
25%
to score before half-time
Al Nassr
60%
to score before half-time

Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 70%

Al HazemAl Nassr
4.31st-half shots8.9
avg 4.7 · 2 away · 4+ in 4/6
avg 7.0 · 3 away · 9+ in 2/6
1.31st-half shots on target2.9
avg 1.3 · 2 away · 1+ in 6/6
avg 3.3 · 3 away · 3+ in 5/6
1.51st-half corners3.6
avg 1.3 · 2 away · 2+ in 3/6
avg 4.0 · 3 away · 4+ in 3/6

How the match splits

1st half2nd half
Shots · Al Hazem4.35.2
Shots · Al Nassr8.99.7
Shots on target · Al Hazem1.31.7
Shots on target · Al Nassr2.93.3
Corners · Al Hazem1.51.7
Corners · Al Nassr3.64.0
How to read this

First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).

Second half — who scores?

At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.

Model inputs

Al Hazem form (last 6)W L D L L D
Expected goals gap (home minus away)-1.5 / match
Head-to-head, last 5Al Hazem 0 · Draws 1 · Al Nassr 4
Al Nassr in their league tableTop quarter

Head to head

Feb 2026Al Nassr FC 4–0 Al Hazem
Oct 2025Al Hazem 0–2 Al Nassr FC
Sept 2024Al Hazem 1–2 Al Nassr FC
Feb 2024Al Nassr FC 4–4 Al Hazem
Sept 2023Al Hazem 1–5 Al Nassr FC
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Common questions

Who will win Al Hazem vs Al Nassr?

Bawler's model rates this match: Al Nassr are favoured (70% win probability vs 12% for Al Hazem, 19% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.

What is the predicted score for Al Hazem vs Al Nassr?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Al Hazem 0-2 Al Nassr (11.0% probability). Expected total goals: 3.2.

How does Bawler predict Al Hazem vs Al Nassr?

Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Al Hazem 12%, the draw 19% and Al Nassr 70%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Al Hazem vs Al Nassr?

Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. That is based on Al Hazem expecting 0.86 goals and Al Nassr 2.35.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Al Hazem vs Al Nassr?

Bawler's model expects 3.2 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 62%.

Around this fixture

Saudi Pro League table →
All fixtures & results →Al Hazem form →Al Nassr form →