What we expect
Our forecast for this match. The tick on each bar is that side’s average over their last six.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
How to read this
The small bars under each number are that side’s most recent matches (up to six), home and away, against opponents of mixed strength, oldest on the left; the dashed line is the number we expect. Our forecast is for this opponent at this ground, so a favourite’s recent numbers often sit below it and an underdog’s above it.
Recent averages · last 6 matches or fewer
What each side has actually done lately, home and away — a record, not a forecast. FC Lugano: last 6 matches; Kauno Zalgiris: last 4 matches.
Our numbers, most likely first
Ranked by our probability, strongest first.
In plain English
FC Lugano are the model's pick, without being a certainty. The model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Kauno Zalgiris. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
FC Lugano to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
FC Lugano · last 6
Kauno Zalgiris · last 4
First half — what we expect
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 73%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win FC Lugano vs Kauno Zalgiris?
Bawler's model rates this match: FC Lugano are favoured (71% win probability vs 10% for Kauno Zalgiris, 19% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for FC Lugano vs Kauno Zalgiris?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is FC Lugano 2-0 Kauno Zalgiris (12.9% probability). Expected total goals: 2.9.
How does Bawler predict FC Lugano vs Kauno Zalgiris?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives FC Lugano 71%, the draw 19% and Kauno Zalgiris 10%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in FC Lugano vs Kauno Zalgiris?
Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 46% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on FC Lugano expecting 2.21 goals and Kauno Zalgiris 0.72.
Over or under 2.5 goals in FC Lugano vs Kauno Zalgiris?
Bawler's model expects 2.9 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 56%.