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Al Faisaly vs Al Diriyah prediction — Saudi Pro League · Sat 7 Nov · 13:20 UK

Saudi Pro League · Sat 7 Nov · 13:20 UK
Al Faisaly 30Draw 27Al Diriyah 43
Al Diriyah or draw has moved from 74% to 70% over 4 days
The call
70%
Al Diriyah or draw
Calls on the result published at 70–75% have landed 66% of the time
147 of 222 settledFull record →
2.7
Goals expected
12d 11hUntil lineups lock

Our combination for this match

3 legs · built by the model
Al Diriyah or Draw70%
Al Diriyah Over 9.5 Shots77%
Al Diriyah Over 2.5 Corners78%
45%
chance all land
Build your own →Multiplying the legs gives 42%. These are from one match and move together, so the real chance is higher.
01

Team stats

What we expect from each side, next to how they have been doing lately.

Al FaisalyAl Diriyah
IN SHORTAl Diriyah are forecast to lead on 3 of these 4 measures. Al Faisaly have recently averaged more goals (1.2) than Al Diriyah (0.7), so this is not one-sided.
GoalsAl Diriyah +0.3
1.2
Last 6 avg 1.2
In line with recent
1+ goals in 4 of 6
1.5
Last 6 avg 0.7
▲ Forecast 0.8 above recent
1+ goals in 3 of 6
ShotsAl Diriyah +0.5
12.5
Last 6 avg 9.7
▲ Forecast 2.8 above recent
12+ shots in 2 of 6
13.0
Last 6 avg 12.2
▲ Forecast 0.8 above recent
13+ shots in 3 of 6
On targetAl Faisaly +0.3
4.2
Last 6 avg 2.8
▲ Forecast 1.4 above recent
4+ on target in 2 of 6
3.9
Last 6 avg 2.5
▲ Forecast 1.4 above recent
4+ on target in 1 of 6
CornersAl Diriyah +0.3
4.4
Last 6 avg 3.3
▲ Forecast 1.1 above recent
4+ corners in 3 of 6
4.7
Last 6 avg 5.3
▼ Forecast 0.6 below recent
5+ corners in 3 of 6
GoalsAl Diriyah +0.1
0.5
No recent record
1+ goals in 4 of 6
0.6
No recent record
1+ goals in 3 of 6
ShotsAl Faisaly +0.2
5.9
No recent record
12+ shots in 2 of 6
5.7
No recent record
13+ shots in 3 of 6
On targetAl Faisaly +0.2
2.1
No recent record
4+ on target in 2 of 6
1.9
No recent record
4+ on target in 1 of 6
CornersAl Diriyah +0.1
2.1
No recent record
4+ corners in 3 of 6
2.2
No recent record
5+ corners in 3 of 6
GoalsAl Diriyah +0.2
0.7
No recent record
1+ goals in 4 of 6
0.9
No recent record
1+ goals in 3 of 6
ShotsAl Diriyah +0.7
6.6
No recent record
12+ shots in 2 of 6
7.3
No recent record
13+ shots in 3 of 6
On target
2.1
No recent record
4+ on target in 2 of 6
2.1
No recent record
4+ on target in 1 of 6
CornersAl Diriyah +0.2
2.3
No recent record
4+ corners in 3 of 6
2.5
No recent record
5+ corners in 3 of 6

Each card is drawn on one scale, so the two bars are directly comparable. “Above recent” means our forecast is higher than their average over the last six.

02

Match odds

How likely the big moments are, and what they add up to.

82%
Goal before half-time
At least one goal in the first 45 minutes.
54%
Both teams score
Each side finds the net at least once.
51%
3 or more goals
Three or more goals in the match, from either side.
Key takeaways
FAVOURITES
Al Diriyah lead on 3 of 4 measures: goals (1.5 v 1.2), shots (13.0 v 12.5), corners (4.7 v 4.4).
OPEN GAME
Goals at both ends are likely: 54% both teams score, and 51% for three or more goals.
EARLY GOAL
Al Diriyah are likelier to score first half: 63% to score before half-time, against 52% for Al Faisaly. 82% that either side does.
FORM CHECK
Al Diriyah are forecast above recent form: 1.5 goals expected, against 0.7 on average over their last six.
03

First-half chances

How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time. A longer bar means more likely.

5+ shots
64%
61%
7+ shots
38%
35%
1+ shots on target
83%
80%
3+ shots on target
34%
29%
1+ corners
83%
84%
3+ corners
34%
37%

Our numbers, most likely first

Ranked by our probability, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.

MarketProbability4-day change
Al Diriyah to score78%−1
Over 1.5 goals75%−1
Under 3.5 goals71%0
Al Faisaly to score70%+2

In plain English

Al Diriyah are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. The model sees around three goals in it.

What would change the call

Al Diriyah or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.

Al Faisaly lead 1–0 at half-time70% → 36%
Al Diriyah lead 1–0 at half-time70% → 94%
Goalless at half-time70% → 75%

Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.

Al Faisaly · last 6

Lv Al Nassr1–312 shots
Dat Al Shabab2–211 shots
Wv Al Kholood3–216 shots
Lv Al Ittihad1–310 shots
Dat Al-Ettifaq0–03 shots
Dv Al Hazem0–06 shots

Al Diriyah · last 6

Lat Al Ittihad0–212 shots
Wv Al Riyadh1–016 shots
Dv Al-Taawoun1–19 shots
Lat Al Nassr FC0–310 shots
Dv Abha0–013 shots
Wat Al Fateh FC2–113 shots

First half — what we expect

Al Faisaly
52%
to score before half-time
Al Diriyah
63%
to score before half-time

Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 82%

Al FaisalyAl Diriyah
5.91st-half shots5.7
avg 4.7 · 2 away · 6+ in 2/6
avg 4.3 · 3 away · 6+ in 1/6
2.11st-half shots on target1.9
avg 1.8 · 2 away · 2+ in 3/6
avg 1.2 · 3 away · 2+ in 2/6
2.11st-half corners2.2
avg 0.7 · 2 away · 2+ in 0/6
avg 2.2 · 3 away · 2+ in 5/6

How the match splits

1st half2nd half
Shots · Al Faisaly5.96.6
Shots · Al Diriyah5.77.3
Shots on target · Al Faisaly2.12.1
Shots on target · Al Diriyah1.92.1
Corners · Al Faisaly2.12.3
Corners · Al Diriyah2.22.5
How to read this

First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).

Second half — who scores?

At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.

Model inputs

Al Faisaly form (last 6)D D L W D L
Expected goals gap (home minus away)-0.3 / match
Head-to-head, last 2Al Faisaly 0 · Draws 2 · Al Diriyah 0
Al Diriyah in their league tableUpper half

Head to head

Mar 2026Al-Faisaly 2–2 Al Diriyah
Nov 2025Al Diriyah 1–1 Al-Faisaly
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Common questions

Who will win Al Faisaly vs Al Diriyah?

Bawler's model rates this match: Al Diriyah are favoured (43% win probability vs 30% for Al Faisaly, 27% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.

What is the predicted score for Al Faisaly vs Al Diriyah?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Al Faisaly 1-1 Al Diriyah (12.8% probability). Expected total goals: 2.7.

How does Bawler predict Al Faisaly vs Al Diriyah?

Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Al Faisaly 30%, the draw 27% and Al Diriyah 43%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Al Faisaly vs Al Diriyah?

Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 54% chance. That is based on Al Faisaly expecting 1.21 goals and Al Diriyah 1.50.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Al Faisaly vs Al Diriyah?

Bawler's model expects 2.7 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 51%.

Around this fixture

Saudi Pro League table →
All fixtures & results →Al Faisaly form →Al Diriyah form →