What we expect
Our forecast for this match. The tick on each bar is that side’s average over their last six.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
How to read this
The small bars under each number are that side’s most recent matches (up to six), home and away, against opponents of mixed strength, oldest on the left; the dashed line is the number we expect. Our forecast is for this opponent at this ground, so a favourite’s recent numbers often sit below it and an underdog’s above it.
Recent averages · last 6 matches
What each side has actually done lately, home and away — a record, not a forecast.
Our numbers, most likely first
Ranked by our probability, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
In plain English
Manchester United are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. They have won three of the last five between them. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Manchester United or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Manchester United · last 6
Aston Villa · last 6
First half — what we expect
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 74%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Manchester United vs Aston Villa?
Bawler's model rates this match: Manchester United are favoured (47% win probability vs 28% for Aston Villa, 25% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Manchester United vs Aston Villa?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Manchester United 1-1 Aston Villa (11.6% probability). Expected total goals: 3.0.
How does Bawler predict Manchester United vs Aston Villa?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Manchester United 47%, the draw 25% and Aston Villa 28%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Manchester United vs Aston Villa?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 60% chance. That is based on Manchester United expecting 1.73 goals and Aston Villa 1.29.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Manchester United vs Aston Villa?
Bawler's model expects 3.0 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 58%.