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Al Ettifaq vs Al Hilal prediction — Saudi Pro League · Sat 7 Nov · 14:30 UK

Saudi Pro League · Sat 7 Nov · 14:30 UK
Al Ettifaq 10Draw 16Al Hilal 75
Al Hilal to win has moved from 76% to 75% over 4 days
The call
75%
Al Hilal to win
Calls on the result published at 75–80% have landed 75% of the time
199 of 267 settledFull record →
3.6
Goals expected
12d 12hUntil lineups lock

Our combination for this match

3 legs · built by the model
Al Hilal or Draw90%
Al Hilal Over 16.5 Shots79%
Al Hilal Over 4.5 Corners78%
59%
chance all land
Build your own →Multiplying the legs gives 56%. These are from one match and move together, so the real chance is higher.
01

Team stats

What we expect from each side, next to how they have been doing lately.

Al EttifaqAl Hilal
IN SHORTAl Hilal are forecast to come out ahead on every measure here, with about three times as many goals as Al Ettifaq (2.7 v 0.9).
GoalsAl Hilal +1.8
0.9
Last 6 avg 1.5
▼ Forecast 0.6 below recent
1+ goals in 5 of 6
2.7
Last 6 avg 2.5
▲ Forecast 0.2 above recent
3+ goals in 3 of 6
ShotsAl Hilal +11.2
10.2
Last 6 avg 12.2
▼ Forecast 2.0 below recent
10+ shots in 4 of 6
21.4
Last 6 avg 20.0
▲ Forecast 1.4 above recent
21+ shots in 2 of 6
On targetAl Hilal +4.8
3.6
Last 6 avg 5.2
▼ Forecast 1.5 below recent
4+ on target in 5 of 6
8.5
Last 6 avg 6.8
▲ Forecast 1.7 above recent
8+ on target in 2 of 6
CornersAl Hilal +4.1
3.1
Last 6 avg 3.7
▼ Forecast 0.5 below recent
3+ corners in 2 of 6
7.2
Last 6 avg 7.2
In line with recent
7+ corners in 3 of 6
GoalsAl Hilal +0.3
0.4
No recent record
1+ goals in 5 of 6
0.7
No recent record
3+ goals in 3 of 6
ShotsAl Hilal +4.8
4.9
No recent record
10+ shots in 4 of 6
9.6
No recent record
21+ shots in 2 of 6
On targetAl Hilal +1.9
1.7
No recent record
4+ on target in 5 of 6
3.6
No recent record
8+ on target in 2 of 6
CornersAl Hilal +1.9
1.5
No recent record
3+ corners in 2 of 6
3.4
No recent record
7+ corners in 3 of 6
GoalsAl Hilal +1.5
0.5
No recent record
1+ goals in 5 of 6
2.0
No recent record
3+ goals in 3 of 6
ShotsAl Hilal +6.5
5.3
No recent record
10+ shots in 4 of 6
11.7
No recent record
21+ shots in 2 of 6
On targetAl Hilal +2.9
1.9
No recent record
4+ on target in 5 of 6
4.9
No recent record
8+ on target in 2 of 6
CornersAl Hilal +2.2
1.7
No recent record
3+ corners in 2 of 6
3.8
No recent record
7+ corners in 3 of 6

Each card is drawn on one scale, so the two bars are directly comparable. “Above recent” means our forecast is higher than their average over the last six.

02

Match odds

How likely the big moments are, and what they add up to.

83%
Goal before half-time
At least one goal in the first 45 minutes.
56%
Both teams score
Each side finds the net at least once.
71%
3 or more goals
Three or more goals in the match, from either side.
Key takeaways
FAVOURITES
Al Hilal lead on every measure: goals (2.7 v 0.9), shots (21.4 v 10.2), on target (8.5 v 3.6).
OPEN GAME
Goals at both ends are likely: 56% both teams score, and 71% for three or more goals.
EARLY GOAL
Al Hilal are likelier to score first half: 72% to score before half-time, against 38% for Al Ettifaq. 83% that either side does.
FORM CHECK
Al Ettifaq are forecast below recent form: 0.9 goals expected, against 1.5 on average over their last six.
03

First-half chances

How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time. A longer bar means more likely.

9+ shots
10%
58%
11+ shots
<10%
38%
3+ shots on target
25%
67%
5+ shots on target
<10%
31%
2+ corners
40%
80%
4+ corners
<10%
42%

Our numbers, most likely first

Ranked by our probability, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.

MarketProbability4-day change
Al Hilal to score93%−1
Over 1.5 goals88%0
Over 2.5 goals71%0
Al Ettifaq to score60%+1

In plain English

Al Hilal are the model's pick, without being a certainty. They have won five of their last six, the model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Al Ettifaq, and Al Ettifaq have not beaten them in their last five meetings. Expect goals: the model sees around four.

What would change the call

Al Hilal to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.

Al Ettifaq lead 1–0 at half-time75% → 29%
Al Hilal lead 1–0 at half-time75% → 87%
Goalless at half-time75% → 59%

Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.

Al Ettifaq · last 6

Wat Al Kholood3–010 shots
Lv Al Ittihad1–49 shots
Wat Neom SC1–04 shots
Dv Al Khaleej1–123 shots
Dat Al Qadsiah3–312 shots
Dv Al-Faisaly0–015 shots

Al Hilal · last 6

Wat Al Qadsiah3–219 shots
Wv Al Hazem1–021 shots
Wv Al Ittihad3–216 shots
Wat Al-Taawoun6–020 shots
Lv Neom SC0–220 shots
Wat Al Shabab2–024 shots

First half — what we expect

Al Ettifaq
38%
to score before half-time
Al Hilal
72%
to score before half-time

Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 83%

Al EttifaqAl Hilal
4.91st-half shots9.6
avg 6.5 · 3 away · 5+ in 4/6
avg 8.7 · 3 away · 10+ in 2/6
1.71st-half shots on target3.6
avg 2.7 · 3 away · 2+ in 4/6
avg 3.8 · 3 away · 4+ in 4/6
1.51st-half corners3.4
avg 1.7 · 3 away · 1+ in 4/6
avg 2.5 · 3 away · 3+ in 2/6

How the match splits

1st half2nd half
Shots · Al Ettifaq4.95.3
Shots · Al Hilal9.611.7
Shots on target · Al Ettifaq1.71.9
Shots on target · Al Hilal3.64.9
Corners · Al Ettifaq1.51.7
Corners · Al Hilal3.43.8
How to read this

First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).

Second half — who scores?

At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.

Model inputs

Al Ettifaq form (last 6)D D D W L W
Expected goals gap (home minus away)-1.8 / match
Head-to-head, last 5Al Ettifaq 0 · Draws 1 · Al Hilal 4
Al Hilal in their league tableTop quarter

Head to head

Feb 2026Al Hilal 2–0 Al-Ettifaq
Oct 2025Al-Ettifaq 0–5 Al Hilal
Apr 2025Al-Ettifaq 1–1 Al Hilal
Nov 2024Al Hilal 3–1 Al-Ettifaq
Feb 2024Al-Ettifaq 0–2 Al Hilal
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who will win Al Ettifaq vs Al Hilal?

Bawler's model rates this match: Al Hilal are favoured (75% win probability vs 10% for Al Ettifaq, 16% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.

What is the predicted score for Al Ettifaq vs Al Hilal?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Al Ettifaq 0-2 Al Hilal (9.6% probability). Expected total goals: 3.6.

How does Bawler predict Al Ettifaq vs Al Hilal?

Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Al Ettifaq 10%, the draw 16% and Al Hilal 75%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Al Ettifaq vs Al Hilal?

Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 56% chance. That is based on Al Ettifaq expecting 0.93 goals and Al Hilal 2.72.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Al Ettifaq vs Al Hilal?

Bawler's model expects 3.6 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 71%.

Around this fixture

Saudi Pro League table →
All fixtures & results →Al Ettifaq form →Al Hilal form →