Bawler's pick
4 legs, built by our modelAn open game: both sides to score, with Martín Ojeda and Evander Ferreira both getting shots away.
Orlando City SC v FC Cincinnati prediction
Orlando City SC are favourites on our numbers: 43% to win, against 35% for FC Cincinnati and 22% for a draw. Our predicted score is Orlando City SC 2–1 FC Cincinnati: the most likely score if Orlando City SC win, at 8%. We expect 3.9 goals in total: 2.0 for Orlando City SC and 1.8 for FC Cincinnati. Both sides are more likely than not to score (73%) and three or more goals is 74%.
In their last six games Orlando City SC have two wins, three draws and one defeat, while FC Cincinnati have three wins, one draw and two defeats. Orlando City SC won their most recent match and FC Cincinnati lost theirs. We expect Orlando City SC to have 17.1 shots (5.5 on target) and FC Cincinnati 14.8 (5.5 on target), and corners at 4.6 to 4.7.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Orlando City SC have won one, FC Cincinnati two, and two were drawn. The last meeting ended Orlando City 1–1 FC Cincinnati, in Aug 2026. Obinna Nwobodo of FC Cincinnati is the most booked player in either squad, once every 2 games in 2026. Bawler's pick for this game is Both Teams to Score, Over 26.5 Total Shots, Martín Ojeda 1+ Shot and Evander Ferreira 1+ Shot. Our model gives all four landing together a 64% chance, which makes the fair price 4/7 (1.56).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Orlando City SC · last 6
FC Cincinnati · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Orlando City SC or draw is 65% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Around this fixture
MLS table →Common questions
Who will win Orlando City SC vs FC Cincinnati?
Bawler's model rates this match: Orlando City SC are favoured (43% win probability vs 35% for FC Cincinnati, 22% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Orlando City SC vs FC Cincinnati?
Bawler's predicted score is Orlando City SC 2-1 FC Cincinnati: the most likely score if Orlando City SC win, which is the likeliest result (43%). Our model puts that exact score at 7.8%. Expected total goals: 3.9.
How does Bawler predict Orlando City SC vs FC Cincinnati?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Orlando City SC 43%, the draw 22% and FC Cincinnati 35%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Orlando City SC vs FC Cincinnati?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 73% chance. That is based on Orlando City SC expecting 2.04 goals and FC Cincinnati 1.84.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Orlando City SC vs FC Cincinnati?
Bawler's model expects 3.9 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 74%.
When are the Orlando City SC v FC Cincinnati line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Orlando City SC v FC Cincinnati?
Both Teams to Score (73%), Over 26.5 Total Shots (80%), Martín Ojeda 1+ Shot (94%), Evander Ferreira 1+ Shot (92%). Our model gives all 4 landing together a 64% chance, a fair price of 4/7 (1.56). 18+, please gamble responsibly.