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Albania vs Finland prediction — UEFA Nations League · Thu 12 Nov · 19:45 UK

UEFA Nations League · Thu 12 Nov · 19:45 UK
32Albania win30Draw39Finland win
Finland or draw has not moved in 2 days — steady at 68%
The call
68%
Finland or draw
Calls on the result published at 60–70% have landed 69% of the time
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Finland are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. The model sees around two goals in it.

The chances

3 goals or fewer−1 in 2 days79%
Finland to score71%
2 or more goals67%
Albania to score66%
Goal before half-time64%
Both teams score47%
3 or more goals41%

What we expect from each side

The grey number is their average over the last six.

AlbaniaAlbaniaFinlandFinland
1.1Goals1.2
usually 1.3usually 1.7
11.2Shots8.9
usually 15.8usually 12.7
2.8On target3.1
usually 4.2usually 3.7
4.9Corners3.9
usually 6.0usually 5.8
AlbaniaAlbaniaFinlandFinland
0.5Goals0.5
5.1Shots4.1
usually 8.3usually 5.2
1.3On target1.4
usually 2.2usually 1.7
2.3Corners1.8
usually 2.8usually 3.5
AlbaniaAlbaniaFinlandFinland
0.6Goals0.7
6.1Shots4.9
1.5On target1.7
2.6Corners2.1

Each bar is split by each side's share of the total.

What would change the call

Finland or draw is 68% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:

Albania lead 1–0 at half-time32%
Finland lead 1–0 at half-time95%
Goalless at half-time74%

Each row is the call worked out again for that half-time score. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.

Albania · last 6

Wv San Marino2–126 shots
Lat Finland1–214 shots
Wat San Marino3–014 shots
Wv Belarus2–020 shots
Lv Luxembourg0–106/06
Lv Israel0–113 shots

Finland · last 6

Lv Belarus0–114 shots
Wv Albania2–111 shots
Dv Belarus0–09 shots
Wat San Marino7–023 shots
Lat Hungary1–211 shots
Lat Germany0–48 shots

First half — what we expect

Albania
38%
to score before half-time
Finland
42%
to score before half-time

First-half chances

How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.

AlbaniaAlbaniaFinlandFinland
68%4+ shots53%
40%6+ shots25%
34%2+ shots on target39%
86%1+ corners78%
39%3+ corners28%

Second half — who scores?

At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.

Head to head

Oct 2026Finland 2–1 Albania
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Common questions

Who will win Albania vs Finland?

Bawler's model rates this match: Finland are favoured (39% win probability vs 32% for Albania, 30% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.

What is the predicted score for Albania vs Finland?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Albania 1-1 Finland (14.0% probability). Expected total goals: 2.3.

How does Bawler predict Albania vs Finland?

Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Albania 32%, the draw 30% and Finland 39%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Albania vs Finland?

Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 47% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on Albania expecting 1.09 goals and Finland 1.23.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Albania vs Finland?

Bawler's model expects 2.3 goals in total. It leans slightly towards two goals or fewer: over 2.5 goals is 41%.

Around this fixture

All fixtures & results →Albania form →Finland form →