Bawler's pick
4 legs, built by our modelAn open game: both sides to score, with Renaud Ripart and Rayan Fofana both getting shots away.
Troyes v Le Havre AC prediction
Our model gives Troyes 42%, the draw 26% and Le Havre AC 32%, so Troyes start as favourites. Our predicted score is Troyes 2–1 Le Havre AC: the most likely score if Troyes win, at 9%. Troyes are expected to score 1.5 goals and Le Havre AC 1.3, 2.8 between them. Both sides are more likely than not to score (57%) and three or more goals is 54%.
We expect Troyes to have 16.0 shots (4.7 on target) and Le Havre AC 11.5 (3.7 on target), and corners at 6.3 to 3.4. That points to Troyes doing more of the attacking. Of their last five meetings on our records, Troyes have won two, Le Havre AC three. The last meeting ended Le Havre 3–2 Troyes, in May 2021.
Troyes come in with one win, one draw and four defeats in their last six. Le Havre AC have no wins, one draw and five defeats over the same run. Michel Diaz of Troyes is the most booked player in either squad, once every 2 games in 2026/27. For Bawler's pick we have gone with Both Teams to Score, Over 22.5 Total Shots, Renaud Ripart 1+ Shot and Rayan Fofana 1+ Shot. The chance all four land is 49% on our numbers, so the fair price is Evens, or 2.03.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Troyes · last 6
Le Havre AC · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Troyes or draw is 68% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Around this fixture
Ligue 1 table →Common questions
Who will win Troyes vs Le Havre AC?
Bawler's model rates this match: Troyes are favoured (42% win probability vs 32% for Le Havre AC, 26% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Troyes vs Le Havre AC?
Bawler's predicted score is Troyes 2-1 Le Havre AC: the most likely score if Troyes win, which is the likeliest result (42%). Our model puts that exact score at 8.8%. Expected total goals: 2.8.
How does Bawler predict Troyes vs Le Havre AC?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Troyes 42%, the draw 26% and Le Havre AC 32%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Troyes vs Le Havre AC?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 57% chance. That is based on Troyes expecting 1.53 goals and Le Havre AC 1.31.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Troyes vs Le Havre AC?
Bawler's model expects 2.8 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 54%.
When are the Troyes v Le Havre AC line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Troyes v Le Havre AC?
Both Teams to Score (57%), Over 22.5 Total Shots (80%), Renaud Ripart 1+ Shot (93%), Rayan Fofana 1+ Shot (91%). Our model gives all 4 landing together a 49% chance, a fair price of Evens (2.03). 18+, please gamble responsibly.