France should get at least a draw here. The model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Italy, and they have won three of the last five between them. The model sees around three goals in it.
The chances
What we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
Each bar is split by each side's share of the total.
What would change the call
France or draw is 81% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Each row is the call worked out again for that half-time score. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Italy · last 6
France · last 6
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Italy vs France?
Bawler's model rates this match: France are favoured (58% win probability vs 19% for Italy, 22% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Italy vs France?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Italy 1-1 France (10.3% probability). Expected total goals: 3.1.
How does Bawler predict Italy vs France?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Italy 19%, the draw 22% and France 58%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Italy vs France?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 58% chance. That is based on Italy expecting 1.09 goals and France 2.04.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Italy vs France?
Bawler's model expects 3.1 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 60%.