Bawler's pick
4 legs, built by our modelSpain on top: we expect them to avoid defeat and do most of the shooting.
Czechia v Spain prediction
Our model makes Spain clear favourites for this UEFA Nations League game, with an 86% chance of winning. Czechia are given 3%, and the draw 11%. Our predicted score is Czechia 0–2 Spain (17%), though no one exact score is likely on its own. Our expected goals are 0.3 for Czechia and 2.7 for Spain, 3.0 in all. There is a 27% chance both sides score and three or more goals is 58%.
On form, Czechia have no wins, one draw and five defeats from their last six games, and Spain have five wins, one draw and no defeats. Of their last five meetings on our records, Czechia have won none, Spain four, and one was drawn. The last meeting ended Spain 3–1 Czechia, in Oct 2026.
We expect Czechia to have 10.1 shots (3.1 on target) and Spain 15.5 (4.1 on target), and corners at 3.4 to 5.1. That points to Spain doing more of the attacking. Bawler's pick for this game is Spain or Draw, Spain Over 11.5 Shots, Spain Over 1.5 Shots on Target and Spain Over 2.5 Corners. Our model gives all four landing together a 62% chance, which makes the fair price 8/13 (1.62).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
What we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Czechia · last 6
Spain · last 6
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Spain to win is 86% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Around this fixture
Common questions
Who will win Czechia vs Spain?
Bawler's model rates this match: Spain are favoured (86% win probability vs 3% for Czechia, 11% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Czechia vs Spain?
Bawler's predicted score is Czechia 0-2 Spain: the most likely score if Spain win, which is the likeliest result (86%). Our model puts that exact score at 17.4%. Expected total goals: 3.0.
How does Bawler predict Czechia vs Spain?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Czechia 3%, the draw 11% and Spain 86%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Czechia vs Spain?
Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 27% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on Czechia expecting 0.34 goals and Spain 2.67.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Czechia vs Spain?
Bawler's model expects 3.0 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 58%.
When are the Czechia v Spain line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Czechia v Spain?
Spain or Draw (97%), Spain Over 11.5 Shots (78%), Spain Over 1.5 Shots on Target (89%), Spain Over 2.5 Corners (82%). Our model gives all 4 landing together a 62% chance, a fair price of 8/13 (1.62). 18+, please gamble responsibly.