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Paris Saint-Germain vs Troyes prediction — Ligue 1 · Sat 7 Nov · 19:45 UK

Ligue 1 · Sat 7 Nov · 19:45 UK
80Paris Saint-Germain win13Draw7Troyes win
The call
80%
Paris Saint-Germain to win
Calls like this land 80% of the time
153 of 192 settledFull record →
5d 06hUntil lineups lock
Likeliest score
2–0
11% — the single most likely result
Expected goals
2.8v0.8
3.6 in total
Both teams score
50%
Coin flip
3+ goals
70%
Likely

Players to watch

What we expect from each side

The grey number is their average over the last six.

Paris Saint-GermainParis Saint-GermainTroyesTroyes
2.8Goals0.8
usually 3.5usually 0.5
16.6Shots8.9
usually 18.2usually 12.7
8.0On target2.9
usually 9.8usually 3.3
5.2Corners5.2
usually 4.0usually 5.7
Paris Saint-GermainParis Saint-GermainTroyesTroyes
1.1Goals0.5
7.4Shots4.3
usually 8.8usually 5.5
3.6On target1.6
usually 5.0usually 1.2
2.4Corners2.4
usually 2.5usually 2.7
Paris Saint-GermainParis Saint-GermainTroyesTroyes
1.7Goals0.2
9.2Shots4.5
4.4On target1.3
2.7Corners2.8

More chances

Paris Saint-Germain to score94%
2 or more goals87%
Goal before half-time81%

Paris Saint-Germain · last 6

Wat Le Havre5–115 shots
Wv Lyon2–017 shots
Wv Barcelona4–222 shots
Wat Strasbourg3–118 shots
Wat Manchester City4–215 shots
Wv Le Mans3–122 shots

Troyes · last 6

Wv Le Mans2–014 shots
Dat Toulouse0–08 shots
Lv Lens1–312 shots
Lv Marseille0–215 shots
Lat Angers0–219 shots
Lat Lille0–28 shots

League position

Troyes in their league tableBottom quarter

Head to head

May 2023Troyes 1–3 Paris Saint-Germain
Oct 2022Paris Saint-Germain 4–3 Troyes
May 2022Paris Saint-Germain 2–2 Troyes
Aug 2021Troyes 1–2 Paris Saint-Germain
Mar 2018Troyes 0–2 Paris Saint-Germain

First half — what we expect

Paris Saint-Germain
68%
to score before half-time
Troyes
41%
to score before half-time

First-half chances

How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.

Paris Saint-GermainParis Saint-GermainTroyesTroyes
68%6+ shots29%
44%8+ shots12%
66%3+ shots on target24%
30%5+ shots on target<10%
87%1+ corners87%
42%3+ corners42%

Second half — who scores?

At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.

What would change the call

Paris Saint-Germain to win is 80% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:

Paris Saint-Germain lead 1–0 at half-time90%
Troyes lead 1–0 at half-time33%
Goalless at half-time64%

Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.

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Around this fixture

Ligue 1 table →
All fixtures & results →Paris Saint-Germain form →Troyes form →

Common questions

Who will win Paris Saint-Germain vs Troyes?

Bawler's model rates this match: Paris Saint-Germain are favoured (80% win probability vs 7% for Troyes, 13% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.

What is the predicted score for Paris Saint-Germain vs Troyes?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Paris Saint-Germain 2-0 Troyes (11.0% probability). Expected total goals: 3.6.

How does Bawler predict Paris Saint-Germain vs Troyes?

Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Paris Saint-Germain 80%, the draw 13% and Troyes 7%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Paris Saint-Germain vs Troyes?

Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 50% chance. That is based on Paris Saint-Germain expecting 2.85 goals and Troyes 0.76.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Paris Saint-Germain vs Troyes?

Bawler's model expects 3.6 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 70%.