Bawler's pick
4 legs, built by our modelEngland on top: we expect them to avoid defeat and do most of the shooting.
England v Croatia prediction
Our model gives England an 83% chance of winning this UEFA Nations League game. A Croatia win is 5% and a draw 11%. Our predicted score is England 3–0 Croatia, at 11%. We expect 3.7 goals in total: 3.0 for England and 0.7 for Croatia. Both teams scoring is only 47% and three or more goals is 71%.
Of their last five meetings on our records, England have won four, Croatia none, and one was drawn. When they last met, it finished Croatia 0–7 England, in Oct 2026. On shots, our forecast is 16.2 for England and 10.1 for Croatia, with 5.1 and 3.9 on target, and corners at 6.4 to 3.1. So we expect England to do more of the shooting.
England come in with four wins, no draws and two defeats in their last six. Croatia have two wins, no draws and four defeats over the same run. Bawler's pick for this game is England or Draw, England Over 11.5 Shots, England Over 2.5 Shots on Target and England Over 3.5 Corners. Our model gives all four landing together a 60% chance, which makes the fair price 4/6 (1.67).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
What we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
England · last 6
Croatia · last 6
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
England to win is 83% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Around this fixture
Common questions
Who will win England vs Croatia?
Bawler's model rates this match: England are favoured (83% win probability vs 5% for Croatia, 11% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for England vs Croatia?
Bawler's predicted score is England 3-0 Croatia: the most likely score if England win, which is the likeliest result (83%). Our model puts that exact score at 11.4%. Expected total goals: 3.7.
How does Bawler predict England vs Croatia?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives England 83%, the draw 11% and Croatia 5%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in England vs Croatia?
Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 47% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on England expecting 3.02 goals and Croatia 0.67.
Over or under 2.5 goals in England vs Croatia?
Bawler's model expects 3.7 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 71%.
When are the England v Croatia line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for England v Croatia?
England or Draw (95%), England Over 11.5 Shots (82%), England Over 2.5 Shots on Target (85%), England Over 3.5 Corners (82%). Our model gives all 4 landing together a 60% chance, a fair price of 4/6 (1.67). 18+, please gamble responsibly.