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Al Ahli vs Al Taawoun prediction — Saudi Pro League · Sat 7 Nov · 17:30 UK

Saudi Pro League · Sat 7 Nov · 17:30 UK
Al Ahli 71Draw 18Al Taawoun 12
Al Ahli to win has moved from 69% to 71% over 4 days
The call
71%
Al Ahli to win
Calls on the result published at 70–75% have landed 66% of the time
147 of 222 settledFull record →
3.4
Goals expected
12d 15hUntil lineups lock

Our combination for this match

3 legs · built by the model
Al Ahli or Draw88%
Al Ahli Over 13.5 Shots77%
Al Ahli Over 3.5 Corners86%
62%
chance all land
Build your own →Multiplying the legs gives 58%. These are from one match and move together, so the real chance is higher.
01

Team stats

What we expect from each side, next to how they have been doing lately.

Al AhliAl Taawoun
IN SHORTAl Ahli are forecast to come out ahead on every measure here, with almost three times as many corners as Al Taawoun (7.0 v 2.5).
GoalsAl Ahli +1.6
2.5
Last 6 avg 3.5
▼ Forecast 1.0 below recent
2+ goals in 6 of 6
0.9
Last 6 avg 0.3
▲ Forecast 0.6 above recent
1+ goals in 2 of 6
ShotsAl Ahli +7.3
17.5
Last 6 avg 15.8
▲ Forecast 1.7 above recent
17+ shots in 2 of 6
10.2
Last 6 avg 14.5
▼ Forecast 4.3 below recent
10+ shots in 5 of 6
On targetAl Ahli +3.2
6.5
Last 6 avg 8.3
▼ Forecast 1.8 below recent
7+ on target in 5 of 6
3.3
Last 6 avg 5.0
▼ Forecast 1.7 below recent
3+ on target in 5 of 6
CornersAl Ahli +4.5
7.0
Last 6 avg 4.0
▲ Forecast 3.0 above recent
7+ corners in 0 of 6
2.5
Last 6 avg 3.7
▼ Forecast 1.2 below recent
2+ corners in 5 of 6
GoalsAl Ahli +0.3
0.7
No recent record
2+ goals in 6 of 6
0.4
No recent record
1+ goals in 2 of 6
ShotsAl Ahli +3.1
7.9
No recent record
17+ shots in 2 of 6
4.8
No recent record
10+ shots in 5 of 6
On targetAl Ahli +1.3
2.9
No recent record
7+ on target in 5 of 6
1.6
No recent record
3+ on target in 5 of 6
CornersAl Ahli +2.1
3.3
No recent record
7+ corners in 0 of 6
1.2
No recent record
2+ corners in 5 of 6
GoalsAl Ahli +1.2
1.8
No recent record
2+ goals in 6 of 6
0.6
No recent record
1+ goals in 2 of 6
ShotsAl Ahli +4.2
9.6
No recent record
17+ shots in 2 of 6
5.4
No recent record
10+ shots in 5 of 6
On targetAl Ahli +1.9
3.6
No recent record
7+ on target in 5 of 6
1.7
No recent record
3+ on target in 5 of 6
CornersAl Ahli +2.4
3.7
No recent record
7+ corners in 0 of 6
1.3
No recent record
2+ corners in 5 of 6

Each card is drawn on one scale, so the two bars are directly comparable. “Above recent” means our forecast is higher than their average over the last six.

02

Match odds

How likely the big moments are, and what they add up to.

80%
Goal before half-time
At least one goal in the first 45 minutes.
55%
Both teams score
Each side finds the net at least once.
66%
3 or more goals
Three or more goals in the match, from either side.
Key takeaways
FAVOURITES
Al Ahli lead on every measure: goals (2.5 v 0.9), shots (17.5 v 10.2), on target (6.5 v 3.3).
OPEN GAME
Goals at both ends are likely: 55% both teams score, and 66% for three or more goals.
EARLY GOAL
Al Ahli are likelier to score first half: 68% to score before half-time, against 37% for Al Taawoun. 80% that either side does.
FORM CHECK
Al Ahli are forecast below recent form: 2.5 goals expected, against 3.5 on average over their last six.
03

First-half chances

How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time. A longer bar means more likely.

7+ shots
62%
24%
9+ shots
39%
10%
2+ shots on target
75%
46%
4+ shots on target
33%
11%
2+ corners
79%
31%
4+ corners
40%
<10%

Our numbers, most likely first

Ranked by our probability, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.

MarketProbability4-day change
Al Ahli to score92%+1
Over 1.5 goals85%0
Over 2.5 goals66%+1
Al Taawoun to score60%−1

In plain English

Al Ahli are the model's pick, without being a certainty. They have won five of their last six, the model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Al Taawoun, and Al Taawoun have not beaten them in their last five meetings. Expect goals: the model sees around three.

What would change the call

Al Ahli to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.

Al Ahli lead 1–0 at half-time71% → 86%
Al Taawoun lead 1–0 at half-time71% → 26%
Goalless at half-time71% → 55%

Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.

Al Ahli · last 6

Wv Al Khaleej4–116 shots
Wat Al Fayha3–215 shots
Wat Al Fateh FC4–017 shots
Wv Al Hazem3–123 shots
Lat Al Qadsiah2–38 shots
Wv Al Riyadh5–016 shots

Al Taawoun · last 6

Lat Al Riyadh1–212 shots
Lv Al Qadsiah0–116 shots
Dat Al Diriyah1–19 shots
Lat Al Shabab0–315 shots
Lv Al Hilal0–615 shots
Lat Al Hazem0–120 shots

First half — what we expect

Al Ahli
68%
to score before half-time
Al Taawoun
37%
to score before half-time

Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 80%

Al AhliAl Taawoun
7.91st-half shots4.8
avg 7.3 · 4 away · 8+ in 3/6
avg 6.5 · 4 away · 5+ in 5/6
2.91st-half shots on target1.6
avg 2.8 · 4 away · 3+ in 3/6
avg 1.5 · 4 away · 2+ in 2/6
3.31st-half corners1.2
avg 2.3 · 4 away · 3+ in 2/6
avg 2.5 · 4 away · 1+ in 6/6

How the match splits

1st half2nd half
Shots · Al Ahli7.99.6
Shots · Al Taawoun4.85.4
Shots on target · Al Ahli2.93.6
Shots on target · Al Taawoun1.61.7
Corners · Al Ahli3.33.7
Corners · Al Taawoun1.21.3
How to read this

First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).

Second half — who scores?

At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.

Model inputs

Al Ahli form (last 6)W L W W W W
Expected goals gap (home minus away)+1.6 / match
Head-to-head, last 5Al Ahli 5 · Draws 0 · Al Taawoun 0
Al Taawoun in their league tableBottom quarter

Head to head

May 2026Al-Taawoun 1–2 Al Ahli
Jan 2026Al Ahli 2–1 Al-Taawoun
May 2025Al Ahli 2–0 Al-Taawoun
Dec 2024Al-Taawoun 2–4 Al Ahli
Mar 2024Al-Taawoun 0–1 Al Ahli
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Common questions

Who will win Al Ahli vs Al Taawoun?

Bawler's model rates this match: Al Ahli are favoured (71% win probability vs 12% for Al Taawoun, 18% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.

What is the predicted score for Al Ahli vs Al Taawoun?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Al Ahli 2-0 Al Taawoun (10.2% probability). Expected total goals: 3.4.

How does Bawler predict Al Ahli vs Al Taawoun?

Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Al Ahli 71%, the draw 18% and Al Taawoun 12%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Al Ahli vs Al Taawoun?

Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 55% chance. That is based on Al Ahli expecting 2.47 goals and Al Taawoun 0.92.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Al Ahli vs Al Taawoun?

Bawler's model expects 3.4 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 66%.

Around this fixture

Saudi Pro League table →
All fixtures & results →Al Ahli form →Al Taawoun form →