San Marino v Belarus prediction
Our model gives Belarus a 91% chance of winning this UEFA Nations League game. A San Marino win is 2% and a draw 7%. Our predicted score is San Marino 0–3 Belarus, at 15%. We expect 3.7 goals in total: 0.4 for San Marino and 3.3 for Belarus. Both teams scoring is only 32% and three or more goals is 72%.
On shots, our forecast is 8.0 for San Marino and 16.5 for Belarus, with 2.3 and 6.4 on target, and corners at 3.1 to 4.7. So we expect Belarus to do more of the shooting.
Of their last three meetings on our records, San Marino have won none, Belarus three. When they last met, it finished Belarus 4–0 San Marino, in Oct 2026.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties.
What we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
San Marino · last 6
Belarus · last 6
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Belarus to win is 91% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Around this fixture
Common questions
Who will win San Marino vs Belarus?
Bawler's model rates this match: Belarus are favoured (91% win probability vs 2% for San Marino, 7% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for San Marino vs Belarus?
Bawler's predicted score is San Marino 0-3 Belarus: the most likely score if Belarus win, which is the likeliest result (91%). Our model puts that exact score at 14.7%. Expected total goals: 3.7.
How does Bawler predict San Marino vs Belarus?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives San Marino 2%, the draw 7% and Belarus 91%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in San Marino vs Belarus?
Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 32% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on San Marino expecting 0.40 goals and Belarus 3.35.
Over or under 2.5 goals in San Marino vs Belarus?
Bawler's model expects 3.7 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 72%.
When are the San Marino v Belarus line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.