Belgium are the model's pick, without being a certainty. The model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Türkiye. Expect goals: the model sees around three.
The chances
What we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
Each bar is split by each side's share of the total.
What would change the call
Belgium to win is 73% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Each row is the call worked out again for that half-time score. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Our combination for this match
3 legs · built by the modelTürkiye · last 6
Belgium · last 6
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Türkiye vs Belgium?
Bawler's model rates this match: Belgium are favoured (73% win probability vs 10% for Türkiye, 17% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Türkiye vs Belgium?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Türkiye 0-2 Belgium (10.9% probability). Expected total goals: 3.4.
How does Bawler predict Türkiye vs Belgium?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Türkiye 10%, the draw 17% and Belgium 73%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Türkiye vs Belgium?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 53% chance. That is based on Türkiye expecting 0.85 goals and Belgium 2.51.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Türkiye vs Belgium?
Bawler's model expects 3.4 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 65%.