Our model makes Vietnam clear favourites for this International friendlies game, with a 94% chance of winning. Chinese Taipei are given 1%, and the draw 5%. Our predicted score is Vietnam 3–0 Chinese Taipei, at 16%. Vietnam are expected to score 3.7 goals and Chinese Taipei 0.3, 4.0 between them. There is a 24% chance both sides score and three or more goals is 75%.
Vietnam have three wins, one draw and two defeats from their last six games, and lost the most recent.
Of their last two meetings on our records, Vietnam have won two, Chinese Taipei none. The last meeting ended Vietnam 4–1 Chinese Taipei, in Mar 2016.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties.
The grey number is their average over the last six.
Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
Vietnam to win is 94% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Bawler's model rates this match: Vietnam are favoured (94% win probability vs 1% for Chinese Taipei, 5% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
Bawler's predicted score is Vietnam 3-0 Chinese Taipei: the most likely score if Vietnam win, which is the likeliest result (94%). Our model puts that exact score at 15.8%. Expected total goals: 4.0.
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Vietnam 94%, the draw 5% and Chinese Taipei 1%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 24% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on Vietnam expecting 3.67 goals and Chinese Taipei 0.28.
Bawler's model expects 4.0 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 75%.
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.