Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelSeattle Sounders FC on top, with Dejan Joveljić our likeliest to test the keeper.
Seattle Sounders FC v Real Salt Lake prediction
Our model gives Seattle Sounders FC 47%, the draw 25% and Real Salt Lake 28%, so Seattle Sounders FC start as favourites. Our predicted score is Seattle Sounders FC 2–1 Real Salt Lake, the likeliest Seattle Sounders FC win score (9%). Our expected goals are 1.7 for Seattle Sounders FC and 1.3 for Real Salt Lake, 3.0 in all. Both sides are more likely than not to score (60%) and three or more goals is 58%.
On form, Seattle Sounders FC have one win, two draws and three defeats from their last six games, and Real Salt Lake have four wins, one draw and one defeat. Colin Guske of Real Salt Lake is the most booked player in either squad, once every 2 games in 2026.
We expect Seattle Sounders FC to have 16.0 shots (5.1 on target) and Real Salt Lake 14.4 (4.8 on target), and corners at 5.9 to 4.5. Of their last five meetings on our records, Seattle Sounders FC and Real Salt Lake have two wins each, with one draw. The last meeting ended Seattle Sounders FC 2–0 Real Salt Lake, in Sept 2026. Bawler's pick for this game is Seattle Sounders FC or Draw, Seattle Sounders FC Over 11.5 Shots and Dejan Joveljić 1+ Shot on Target. Our model gives all three landing together a 44% chance, which makes the fair price 5/4 (2.29).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Seattle Sounders FC · last 6
Real Salt Lake · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Seattle Sounders FC or draw is 72% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Around this fixture
MLS table →Common questions
Who will win Seattle Sounders FC vs Real Salt Lake?
Bawler's model rates this match: Seattle Sounders FC are favoured (47% win probability vs 28% for Real Salt Lake, 25% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Seattle Sounders FC vs Real Salt Lake?
Bawler's predicted score is Seattle Sounders FC 2-1 Real Salt Lake: the most likely score if Seattle Sounders FC win, which is the likeliest result (47%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.3%. Expected total goals: 3.0.
How does Bawler predict Seattle Sounders FC vs Real Salt Lake?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Seattle Sounders FC 47%, the draw 25% and Real Salt Lake 28%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Seattle Sounders FC vs Real Salt Lake?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 60% chance. That is based on Seattle Sounders FC expecting 1.72 goals and Real Salt Lake 1.30.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Seattle Sounders FC vs Real Salt Lake?
Bawler's model expects 3.0 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 58%.
When are the Seattle Sounders FC v Real Salt Lake line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Seattle Sounders FC v Real Salt Lake?
Seattle Sounders FC or Draw (72%), Seattle Sounders FC Over 11.5 Shots (81%), Dejan Joveljić 1+ Shot on Target (66%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 44% chance, a fair price of 5/4 (2.29). 18+, please gamble responsibly.