Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelAthletic Club on top, and Iñaki Williams getting plenty of shots away.
Athletic Club v Espanyol prediction
Our model makes Athletic Club favourites for this LaLiga game, giving them a 55% chance of winning. Espanyol are 20% and the draw is 26%. Our predicted score is Athletic Club 1–0 Espanyol (12%), though no one exact score is likely on its own. Our expected goals are 1.7 for Athletic Club and 0.9 for Espanyol, 2.6 in all. Both teams scoring is only 49% and three or more goals comes in at 48%.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Athletic Club and Espanyol have two wins each, with one draw. When they last met, it finished Espanyol 2–0 Athletic Club, in May 2026. For cards, Clemens Riedel (Espanyol) has been booked once every 2 games in 2026/27, more often than anyone else here.
On form, Athletic Club have three wins, two draws and one defeat from their last six games, and Espanyol have one win, one draw and four defeats. On shots, our forecast is 18.9 for Athletic Club and 8.7 for Espanyol, with 5.4 and 3.3 on target, and corners at 6.4 to 3.5. So we expect Athletic Club to do more of the shooting. For Bawler's pick we have gone with Athletic Club or Draw, Athletic Club Over 14.5 Shots and Iñaki Williams 2+ Shots. The chance all three land is 45% on our numbers, so the fair price is 6/5, or 2.20.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Athletic Club · last 6
Espanyol · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Athletic Club or draw is 80% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Around this fixture
LaLiga table →Common questions
Who will win Athletic Club vs Espanyol?
Bawler's model rates this match: Athletic Club are favoured (55% win probability vs 20% for Espanyol, 26% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Athletic Club vs Espanyol?
Bawler's predicted score is Athletic Club 1-0 Espanyol: the most likely score if Athletic Club win, which is the likeliest result (55%). Our model puts that exact score at 12.3%. Expected total goals: 2.6.
How does Bawler predict Athletic Club vs Espanyol?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Athletic Club 55%, the draw 26% and Espanyol 20%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Athletic Club vs Espanyol?
Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 49% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on Athletic Club expecting 1.68 goals and Espanyol 0.92.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Athletic Club vs Espanyol?
Bawler's model expects 2.6 goals in total. It leans slightly towards two goals or fewer: over 2.5 goals is 48%.
When are the Athletic Club v Espanyol line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Athletic Club v Espanyol?
Athletic Club or Draw (80%), Athletic Club Over 14.5 Shots (78%), Iñaki Williams 2+ Shots (66%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 45% chance, a fair price of 6/5 (2.20). 18+, please gamble responsibly.