BAWLER
← Tonight's board

Al Fateh vs Al Riyadh prediction — Saudi Pro League · Fri 6 Nov · 14:30 UK

Saudi Pro League · Fri 6 Nov · 14:30 UK
Al Fateh 45Draw 25Al Riyadh 30
Al Fateh or draw has moved from 72% to 70% over 4 days
The call
70%
Al Fateh or draw
Calls on the result published at 70–75% have landed 66% of the time
147 of 222 settledFull record →
3.1
Goals expected
11d 12hUntil lineups lock
01

Team stats

What we expect from each side, next to how they have been doing lately.

Al FatehAl Riyadh
IN SHORTAl Fateh are forecast to come out ahead on every measure here.
GoalsAl Fateh +0.3
1.7
Last 6 avg 1.5
▲ Forecast 0.2 above recent
2+ goals in 3 of 6
1.4
Last 6 avg 0.8
▲ Forecast 0.5 above recent
1+ goals in 3 of 6
ShotsAl Fateh +0.1
16.2
Last 6 avg 12.3
▲ Forecast 3.8 above recent
16+ shots in 1 of 6
16.1
Last 6 avg 12.8
▲ Forecast 3.3 above recent
16+ shots in 2 of 6
On targetAl Fateh +0.7
5.6
Last 6 avg 4.2
▲ Forecast 1.4 above recent
6+ on target in 2 of 6
4.9
Last 6 avg 3.3
▲ Forecast 1.6 above recent
5+ on target in 2 of 6
CornersAl Fateh +0.8
6.4
Last 6 avg 6.0
▲ Forecast 0.4 above recent
6+ corners in 3 of 6
5.6
Last 6 avg 4.7
▲ Forecast 0.9 above recent
6+ corners in 2 of 6
Goals
0.4
No recent record
2+ goals in 3 of 6
0.4
No recent record
1+ goals in 3 of 6
ShotsAl Fateh +0.5
7.1
No recent record
16+ shots in 1 of 6
6.6
No recent record
16+ shots in 2 of 6
On targetAl Fateh +0.3
2.4
No recent record
6+ on target in 2 of 6
2.0
No recent record
5+ on target in 2 of 6
CornersAl Fateh +0.4
3.0
No recent record
6+ corners in 3 of 6
2.6
No recent record
6+ corners in 2 of 6
GoalsAl Fateh +0.3
1.3
No recent record
2+ goals in 3 of 6
0.9
No recent record
1+ goals in 3 of 6
ShotsAl Riyadh +0.4
9.0
No recent record
16+ shots in 1 of 6
9.5
No recent record
16+ shots in 2 of 6
On targetAl Fateh +0.3
3.2
No recent record
6+ on target in 2 of 6
2.9
No recent record
5+ on target in 2 of 6
CornersAl Fateh +0.4
3.4
No recent record
6+ corners in 3 of 6
3.0
No recent record
6+ corners in 2 of 6

Each card is drawn on one scale, so the two bars are directly comparable. “Above recent” means our forecast is higher than their average over the last six.

02

Match odds

How likely the big moments are, and what they add up to.

67%
Goal before half-time
At least one goal in the first 45 minutes.
61%
Both teams score
Each side finds the net at least once.
59%
3 or more goals
Three or more goals in the match, from either side.
Key takeaways
FAVOURITES
Al Fateh lead on every measure: goals (1.7 v 1.4), shots (16.2 v 16.1), on target (5.6 v 4.9).
OPEN GAME
Goals at both ends are likely: 61% both teams score, and 59% for three or more goals.
EARLY GOAL
Al Riyadh are likelier to score first half: 43% to score before half-time, against 42% for Al Fateh. 67% that either side does.
FORM CHECK
Al Riyadh are forecast above recent form: 1.4 goals expected, against 0.8 on average over their last six.
03

First-half chances

How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time. A longer bar means more likely.

6+ shots
66%
60%
8+ shots
42%
36%
1+ shots on target
87%
83%
3+ shots on target
41%
33%
2+ corners
75%
68%
4+ corners
35%
28%

Our numbers, most likely first

Ranked by our probability, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.

MarketProbability4-day change
Al Fateh to score82%−1
Over 1.5 goals81%0
Al Riyadh to score75%+2
Under 3.5 goals63%0

In plain English

Al Fateh are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. They have lost five of their last six. The model sees around three goals in it.

What would change the call

Al Fateh or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.

Al Fateh lead 1–0 at half-time70% → 93%
Al Riyadh lead 1–0 at half-time70% → 38%
Goalless at half-time70% → 74%

Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.

Al Fateh · last 6

Lv Al Shabab1–316 shots
Lv Al Khaleej2–312 shots
Wat Al Hazem3–215 shots
Lv Al Ahli0–45 shots
Lat Neom SC2–413 shots
Lv Al Diriyah1–213 shots

Al Riyadh · last 6

Wv Al Taawoun2–113 shots
Lat Al Diriyah0–116 shots
Dat Al-Fayha1–117 shots
Wv Al Kholood2–011 shots
Dat Al Khaleej0–08 shots
Lat Al Ahli0–512 shots

First half — what we expect

Al Fateh
42%
to score before half-time
Al Riyadh
43%
to score before half-time

Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 67%

Al FatehAl Riyadh
7.11st-half shots6.6
avg 4.5 · 3 away · 7+ in 1/6
avg 4.3 · 4 away · 7+ in 0/6
2.41st-half shots on target2.0
avg 1.7 · 3 away · 2+ in 3/6
avg 0.5 · 4 away · 2+ in 1/6
3.01st-half corners2.6
avg 2.3 · 3 away · 3+ in 3/6
avg 2.3 · 4 away · 3+ in 3/6

How the match splits

1st half2nd half
Shots · Al Fateh7.19.0
Shots · Al Riyadh6.69.5
Shots on target · Al Fateh2.43.2
Shots on target · Al Riyadh2.02.9
Corners · Al Fateh3.03.4
Corners · Al Riyadh2.63.0
How to read this

First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).

Second half — who scores?

At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.

Model inputs

Al Fateh form (last 6)L L L W L L
Expected goals gap (home minus away)+0.3 / match
Head-to-head, last 5Al Fateh 2 · Draws 1 · Al Riyadh 2
Al Riyadh in their league tableLower half

Head to head

May 2026Al Riyadh 1–0 Al Fateh FC
Jan 2026Al Fateh FC 3–1 Al Riyadh
Oct 2025Al Fateh FC 2–0 Al Riyadh
Apr 2025Al Riyadh 2–2 Al Fateh FC
Nov 2024Al Fateh FC 1–2 Al Riyadh
Build a combination on this match →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who will win Al Fateh vs Al Riyadh?

Bawler's model rates this match: Al Fateh are favoured (45% win probability vs 30% for Al Riyadh, 25% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.

What is the predicted score for Al Fateh vs Al Riyadh?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Al Fateh 1-1 Al Riyadh (11.4% probability). Expected total goals: 3.1.

How does Bawler predict Al Fateh vs Al Riyadh?

Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Al Fateh 45%, the draw 25% and Al Riyadh 30%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Al Fateh vs Al Riyadh?

Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 61% chance. That is based on Al Fateh expecting 1.71 goals and Al Riyadh 1.37.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Al Fateh vs Al Riyadh?

Bawler's model expects 3.1 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 59%.

Around this fixture

Saudi Pro League table →
All fixtures & results →Al Fateh form →Al Riyadh form →