World Cup 2026 · Forecast
Who wins the 2026 World Cup? The final forecast
The tournament ended on 19 July 2026 — this page preserves Bawler's final forecast as published. Bawler ran the entire 48-team tournament 10,000 times, playing out every match based on each team's recent scoring and defending form, FIFA ranking, and home advantage. The percentages below are how often each nation reached each round across those simulations — and here is how those forecasts actually did.
Snapshotted each morning at 07:30 UK, then cryptographically anchored to the Bitcoin blockchain before kickoff — so the forecast at the top of each tournament day is provably the one we committed to before the matches were played.
Latest run: Thursday, 13 August 2026
Top contenders
Top 10 to lift the trophy
Probability of reaching each knockout round, ordered by P(Winner). Spain leads the field at 45.5% — with the 48-team format adding extra knockout rounds, even the strongest contender still has to win several ties in a row.
| # | Team | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Spain | 92.8% | 82.5% | 69.8% | 56.9% | 45.5% |
| 2 |  England | 75.4% | 60.2% | 42.2% | 24.6% | 12.6% |
| 3 |  Uruguay | 62.4% | 47.0% | 29.9% | 15.4% | 6.67% |
| 4 |  Iran | 62.1% | 45.5% | 27.6% | 13.6% | 5.73% |
| 5 |  South Korea | 61.0% | 44.6% | 26.4% | 12.7% | 4.93% |
| 6 |  Czech Republic | 61.9% | 43.8% | 24.7% | 11.2% | 3.67% |
| 7 |  Tunisia | 54.5% | 38.9% | 21.8% | 9.08% | 3.45% |
| 8 |  Scotland | 51.2% | 35.9% | 19.8% | 8.44% | 2.92% |
| 9 |  Panama | 51.6% | 35.9% | 18.9% | 8.14% | 2.58% |
| 10 |  Turkey | 56.6% | 38.8% | 20.0% | 7.97% | 2.49% |
Group advancement
Who was forecast to escape the group stage?
Top two from each of the 12 groups advance automatically. The eight best third-placed teams across all groups join them in the Round of 32. Each row shows the probability a team finishes top-2 in their group.
Mexico60.0%- Czech Republic55.2%
- South Korea54.7%
South Africa30.2%
Canada83.0%
Switzerland63.2%
Bosnia & Herzegovina27.3%
Qatar26.4%
Ecuador65.5%
Germany59.4%
Ivory Coast52.4%
Curacao22.7%
Japan56.9%
Netherlands56.6%- Tunisia47.1%
Sweden39.3%
Belgium58.1%- Iran56.7%
Egypt48.0%
New Zealand37.2%
- Spain95.0%
- Uruguay56.5%
Saudi Arabia28.1%
Cape Verde20.3%
Portugal76.2%
Colombia64.8%
DR Congo29.7%
Uzbekistan29.3%
All 48 nations
Full forecast — all 48 nations
Click any team for the deep-dive page with its group fixtures, model breakdown, and round-by-round path.
| # | Team | Top 2 | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | 95.0% | 92.8% | 82.5% | 69.8% | 56.9% | 45.5% |
| 2 | England | 72.4% | 75.4% | 60.2% | 42.2% | 24.6% | 12.6% |
| 3 | Uruguay | 56.5% | 62.4% | 47.0% | 29.9% | 15.4% | 6.67% |
| 4 | Iran | 56.7% | 62.1% | 45.5% | 27.6% | 13.6% | 5.73% |
| 5 | South Korea | 54.7% | 61.0% | 44.6% | 26.4% | 12.7% | 4.93% |
| 6 | Czech Republic | 55.2% | 61.9% | 43.8% | 24.7% | 11.2% | 3.67% |
| 7 | Tunisia | 47.1% | 54.5% | 38.9% | 21.8% | 9.08% | 3.45% |
| 8 | Scotland | 39.2% | 51.2% | 35.9% | 19.8% | 8.44% | 2.92% |
| 9 | Panama | 43.8% | 51.6% | 35.9% | 18.9% | 8.14% | 2.58% |
| 10 | Turkey | 49.7% | 56.6% | 38.8% | 20.0% | 7.97% | 2.49% |
| 11 | Saudi Arabia | 28.1% | 39.5% | 26.2% | 12.9% | 4.81% | 1.67% |
| 12 | Uzbekistan | 29.3% | 38.9% | 25.9% | 12.4% | 4.55% | 1.48% |
| 13 |  Iraq | 30.5% | 39.2% | 25.8% | 13.0% | 4.61% | 1.47% |
| 14 | New Zealand | 37.2% | 44.5% | 28.8% | 14.4% | 5.07% | 1.36% |
| 15 |  Jordan | 28.3% | 36.4% | 23.3% | 10.9% | 4.00% | 1.23% |
| 16 | Qatar | 26.4% | 37.1% | 23.9% | 11.0% | 4.07% | 1.07% |
| 17 |  Haiti | 18.6% | 26.2% | 16.7% | 7.36% | 2.34% | 0.67% |
| 18 | Curacao | 22.7% | 29.9% | 18.3% | 7.65% | 2.42% | 0.58% |
| 19 | Mexico | 60.0% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 20 | South Africa | 30.2% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 21 | Canada | 83.0% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 22 | Bosnia & Herzegovina | 27.3% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 23 | Switzerland | 63.2% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 24 |  Brazil | 91.2% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 25 |  Morocco | 51.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 26 |  USA | 59.6% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 27 |  Paraguay | 36.0% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 28 |  Australia | 54.7% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 29 | Germany | 59.4% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 30 | Ivory Coast | 52.4% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 31 | Ecuador | 65.5% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 32 | Netherlands | 56.6% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 33 | Japan | 56.9% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 34 | Sweden | 39.3% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 35 | Belgium | 58.1% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 36 | Egypt | 48.0% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 37 | Cape Verde | 20.3% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 38 |  France | 76.1% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.00% |
| 39 |  Senegal | 48.8% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 40 |  Norway | 44.6% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 41 |  Argentina | 91.9% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.00% |
| 42 |  Algeria | 34.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 43 |  Austria | 45.8% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 44 | Portugal | 76.2% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 45 | DR Congo | 29.7% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 46 | Colombia | 64.8% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 47 |  Croatia | 53.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 48 |  Ghana | 30.9% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Methodology
How the forecast works
For each of the 2,256 possible matchups in the tournament, Bawler's model produces a full Win/Draw/Loss probability triple from recent scoring and defending form, FIFA ranking, opponent strength, and a small home-advantage prior.
We then simulate the entire 48-team tournament 10,000 times — group stage, Round of 32, Round of 16, Quarter-finals, Semi-finals, Final. Group standings are decided on points, goal difference, then goals scored. Knockout draws are split between extra time and penalties with a small bias toward the pre-match favourite (~55%, matching historical shootout data).
Why the field looks so open. FIFA's expanded 48-team format adds an extra knockout round (Round of 32) compared to the 2022 tournament, which means even the strongest contender has to win six knockouts in a row. Six 65% favourites still multiply to just 7.5%, and most knockouts are tighter than that. The probabilities reflect genuine uncertainty rather than confidence theatre.
Why you can trust the numbers above didn't change after the fact. Every morning at 07:30 UK we snapshot the day's forecast and hash-anchor it to the Bitcoin blockchain via OpenTimestamps. The proof is published before any of that day's matches kick off, and anyone can independently verify, offline, that we couldn't have edited the numbers after results came in. See /verify for the proof files and the verification walkthrough.