World Cup 2026 · Group B
Qatar at World Cup 2026
Bawler's forecast across 10,000 simulated tournaments
FIFA rank
#59
Official ranking
Win the group
15.1%
Top two finish
Reach the last 16
48.8%
Round of 16
Win the cup
0.20%
Lift the trophy
Bawler's full forecast for Qatar at the 2026 FIFA World Cup — placed in Group B alongside Canada, Bosnia & Herzegovina, and Switzerland. Derived from 10,000 simulations of the entire tournament, updated each morning before kickoff.
Tournament path
Qatar's path to the trophy
Probability Qatar reaches each stage of the tournament, across 10,000 simulated tournaments.
Escape group
15.1%
Round of 16
48.8%
Quarter-finals
29.3%
Semi-finals
11.0%
Final
1.94%
Win it all
0.20%
Group B
Group B forecast
Top two from this group advance directly. The eight best third-placed teams across all 12 groups also progress to the Round of 32.
| Team | FIFA | Top 2 | R16 | QF | SF | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Switzerland | #15 | 94.5% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
 Canada | #48 | 90.1% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Qatar | #59 | 15.1% | 48.8% | 29.3% | 11.0% | 0.20% |
 Bosnia & Herzegovina | #62 | 0.31% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Fixtures
Qatar's World Cup fixtures
3 matches — Bawler published a prediction for each.